Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 69 to 76. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 83 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend as high pressure holds north of the state. A plume of moisture will bring showery conditions over windward Big Island today with scattered clouds and showers elsewhere across the state. A disturbance aloft may enhance rainfall over some areas this weekend.

Discussion

A ridge of high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce moderate to locally breezy trade winds through the weekend. Passing clouds and showers will continue to ride in with the trade winds and will produce some light to moderate rainfall over windward and mauka areas over the smaller islands. Over on the Big Island and east Maui, satellite imagery is showing a plume of moisture moving in from the east this morning. Showery conditions are expected today and we could see a few thunderstorms pop up during the afternoon over the Big Island slopes. This mornings sounding from Hilo shows a weakened inversion with an increase of low level moisture. Showers should be generally on the decrease by this evening for the Big Island. Friday looks to be a fairly typical trade wind day with some passing showers across the state.
Some enhancement in shower activity is possible for the weekend, mainly for the western end of the state. An upper level low is expected to approach the state from the north and will likely stall about 200 miles north of Kauai or Oahu. The upper low will be close enough to destabilize the atmosphere over the western end of the state and produce brief heavy showers within any pocket of moisture moving with the trade winds. Also, the high terrain on the Big Island will experience higher rainfall chances, mainly during afternoon hours. The disturbance aloft will weaken on Monday and Tuesday, bringing back stable conditions. Stay tuned as the forecast for the weekend can evolve due to the erratic nature of upper level lows.
Also we did issue a Special Weather Statement (SPSHFO) yesterday evening due to several pilots reporting areas of volcanic glass or Pele’s hair near the Halemaumau summit. This morning’s sounding from Hilo shows a weakened inversion at around 10000 feet. An upper level disturbance slowly approaching the area will continue to keep a somewhat unstable atmosphere through the weekend. This could possibly allow volcanic emissions to travel elsewhere across the Big Island depending on the strength of the volcanic emission. Winds will generally be out of the south or southwest as you get above 10,000 feet and out of the east to northeast below 10,000 feet.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate trade winds in place during the next 24 hours. MVFR cigs/vsbys will remain common in showers over most windward areas through mid morning. An area of enhanced moisture could keep reduced cigs/vsbys in place over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island through much of the day. Meanwhile, windward sections of Kauai and Oahu should see improvement by late this morning, and leeward sections of all islands should see prevailing VFR conditions during the next 24 hours.
An unstable airmass over the Big Island could allow for the development of a thunderstorm or two over the Big Island slopes this afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra is now in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through mid morning, and possibly though much of the day over windward sections of Maui and the Big Island.

Marine

Surface high pressure positioned far northeast of the state is weakening as it shifts further east toward the U.S. West Coast. A new, slightly stronger high building in north of the region today will subtly tighten the pressure gradient down across the area. This will produce moderate to locally strong trade winds the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for those typically windier waters surrounding Maui County and south of Big Island starting at noon today and continuing through Friday afternoon. This SCA may need to be extended into Friday evening or early Saturday morning.
A couple of late week into early next week small, short to medium period north northwest swells will come through beginning tonight into Friday, as well as Sunday into Monday, that will maintain low end north and west facing shore surf. A small, long period west northwest swell being generated by Northwest Pacific Typhoon Mindulle may reach the islands by Tuesday of next week. A small, medium to long period south southwest swell will arrive by tonight and peak Friday. This swell will keep south surf from going completely flat during the remainder of the week. Choppy wind wave surf along most eastern exposures will remain small the next couple of days. A more late week persistent, stronger trade fetch upstream of the islands may increase weekend east facing shore surf.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov