Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 89. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 88. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 67 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 58 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 88. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades will weaken to moderate by this weekend and will focus clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas through the forecast period.

Discussion

Breezy trades remain established across the islands this morning and will continue through mid-week. And the high coverage of stratocu extending well upstream of the islands is as strong of an indication as any that trades will remain on the wetter side for the next few days. Although upper ridging building across the area during the next 24 hours will bring a return to stable conditions, forecast soundings indicate only moderate stability characterized by pronounced dry layer and rather weak temperature inversion. Thus, although clouds and showers will tend to focus over windward and mauka areas, breezy trades will also usher light showers leeward with greater efficiency, especially overnight and during the early morning.
Deepening low pressure over the northeast Pacific during the latter half of the week will cause gradient to relax across the islands as surface pressure falls pervade the eastern and central Pacific. Global model consensus remains strong that trades will relax to moderate intensity by this weekend. Wetter trades will likely favored during this time as broad upper troughing encompassing the region favors below normal stability.

Aviation

Breezy trade winds will continue over the next several days. AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate low-level turbulence below 080 south through west of mountains for all islands due to the breezy winds.
The trades will carry in clouds and fast-moving showers this morning that will bring brief mountain obscurations/MVFR ceilings and visibility over the windward slopes. More extensive mountain obscurations will occur over the windward sides of Kauai and Oahu, where AIRMET Sierra is in effect. Overall showers should taper off by late morning.

Marine

The strong high pressure system to the northeast continues to drive fresh to locally strong trades across the region. An overnight ASCAT pass showed winds just below gales in the Alenuihaha Channel. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect today for all waters mostly for winds, but some areas are also seeing some seas in excess of 10 feet. The SCA has been extended through Thursday for coastal waters near Oahu eastward. Winds over the typical windier area near Maui and the Big Island will likely remain at SCA levels through Friday. The high pressure system to the northeast is expected to move to the east and be replaced by a new high to the north over the upcoming weekend. A front passing north of the area will help to disrupt the ridge to the north of the islands, helping to weaken winds a bit for the latter part of the weekend.
The persistent trade winds will continue to bring elevated surf to east facing shores over the next couple of days, with surf gradually lowering later in the week and into early next week. A small northwest swell is expected to begin filling in Thursday, peak on Friday, then lower slowly over the weekend and into early next week. The current south swell will continue to lower over the next couple of days. Otherwise, there will be a few small, mainly background south and southeast swells throughout the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov