Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 71. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 70. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 89. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 58 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

After several days with light and variable winds, our more typical easterly trade wind regime has returned this morning and will continue through the upcoming weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, especially over the western end of the state where a band of moisture associated with an old front will linger through Thursday. Thereafter, a drier trade wind pattern is expected Friday through early next week.

Discussion

A transition period is anticipated today as a ridge noses eastward trailing a front that passed to the north. The light northeast flow will shift out of the east and increase into the moderate to breezy category later today through the second half of the week. Clouds and showers will shift back over windward and mauka locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours.
A residual band of moisture associated with the tail-end of the aforementioned front will linger over the western end of the state through Thursday, which will support better windward shower coverage. Although the windward showers will remain on the light/moderate side due to rising upper heights and stable conditions in place, rising streams can’t be ruled out if the showers remain focused over any location for long periods of time. The best chance of this scenario unfolding will be over the northern and windward slopes of Kauai where the moisture axis stalls.
Friday through the upcoming weekend, guidance depicts the previously discussed moisture axis diminishing with drier trade wind conditions filling in across the state.

Aviation

Remnants from the tail end of dying front will bring enhanced low level moisture to windward sides of Kauai and Oahu this morning. Expect scattered to numerous showers in this aforementioned area with periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility. Isolated showers are expected elsewhere. Trade winds will become slightly more established throughout the forecast period.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect above 2000 feet for north thru east sides of Kauai due to tempo mountain obscuration from clouds and showers.

Marine

A large long period northwest to north swell will slowly subside through today. Latest swell data from the nearshore buoys suggest the surf has lowered to just below High Surf Warning criteria of 25 feet. Therefore, the Warning is now replaced with an Advisory. This advisory is good through late tonight. For the rest of the week and through early next week, expect a series of small to moderate northwest pulses reaching the islands’ north and west shores. This declining northwest to north swell will be shifting to the northeast today through Thursday, bringing a boost in the surf into the moderate range along the east facing shores on Thursday. The strengthening trades thereafter will hold the surf heights in the small to moderate range along east facing shores after Thursday.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for elevated seas of 10 ft or higher remains in effect for the windward waters through late tonight. A new surface high is setting up shop northwest and north of the islands through Thursday. The building high will strengthen the trade winds to locally strong of 23 kt or higher by Thursday, and hold through the weekend. This increase will warrant an SCA that will be issued later today or tonight, for selected waters around Maui County and waters south of the Big Island. This SCA will continue into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov