Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 87. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 66 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 88. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades will become locally strong Thursday night into Friday. The stalled remnants of a cold front will support wet conditions over Windward Kauai into the first half of the weekend while a gradual drying trend can be expected elsewhere.

Discussion

Locally breezy trades will further strengthen today as mid- level ridging near the Dateline expands eastward and allows surface high pressure to reestablish over the central Pacific. Additional strengthening of trades is forecast late this week with locally strong trades possible late tonight into Friday. Throughout this time, the resident band of frontal moisture will support cloudy and wet conditions over Windward Kauai and, at times, Windward Oahu. This band of moisture continues to demonstrate a healthy appearance on satellite which lends itself to increased confidence in wetter-than-normal conditions. However, limited moisture depth and lack of greater synoptic forcing preclude concerns for heavy rain at this time. Regional model analyses and the CIMMS MIMIC PWAT product indicate a drier airmass extending from about 150W, just east of the Big Island, to the Southern California/Baja coast. Trades will slowly but surely advect this drier airmass across the state during the next several days bringing a drying trend from east to west. Generally speaking, drier conditions and greater low-level stability will reach the Big Island early Friday morning and the central portion of the state by late Friday. Given the increasingly flow-parallel orientation of the frontal band over Kauai, model depictions of its stubborn departure westward are believable. Taken at face value, the latest GFS suggests drier trades may not take hold over Kauai until Saturday night or early Sunday, though exact timing will be subject to adjustment. Trades will begin to weaken during the first half of next week as ridging runs its course and a fresh round of heights falls over the north Pacific gets underway.

Aviation

Moderate trades will persist today and help generate scattered showers along windward locations of all islands. The remnants of a dying front north of Kauai will bring enhanced low level moisture and shower activity to windward Kauai and Oahu. They activity may bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions expected elsewhere.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A northwest to north swell will subside and shift out of the northeast today. For the rest of the week and into early next week, expect small to moderate surf along north and west facing shores as a series of small to moderate northwest swells fills in. Expect moderate east facing shores surf today as the current north to northwest swell shifts to the northeast. In addition, strengthening trades will hold the surf heights in the small to moderate range along east facing shores into early next week.
Trade winds will strengthen today and hold through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for waters northwest and lee of Kauai and for the windier waters around Maui County and south of the Big Island is now in effect. This SCA will likely continue through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov