Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 73. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 88. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 74. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 87. Light winds.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 65 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 88. Light winds.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 57 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 88. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A weakening high pressure ridge north of the state will result in weakening trade winds, with light winds expected to spread across the region as early as Tuesday. The light winds will bring afternoon sea breezes with clouds and limited shower activity to interior and leeward areas of the islands.

Discussion

No significant changes in the short term, with some downward tweaks to the winds based on the latest high resolution models. In the longer term, for next weekend, the forecast has been nudged to the GFS solution.
High pressure to the north will weaken and a ridge will be pushed southward towards the islands over the coming days. This will weaken our trade winds, leaving a light east to southeast background flow in place, that will allow for afternoon sea breezes and some overnight land breezes to set up. Expect light to moderate trade winds today to weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Satellite derived precipitable water (PW) matches the overnight soundings from Lihue and Hilo with values around 1.0 inches. This is at the low end of normal for November. Only a few hundredths of rain have been reported at various rain gages overnight, and less than 1 inch over the past 24 hours. Expect rainfall values to remain light for much of the week. Showers will continue to be focused over windward and mountain areas today with the trade wind pattern holding. As we switch to lighter winds, afternoon sea breezes will form clouds over the islands, but again with PW values expected to remain on the below normal side, not expected any significant rainfall.
Heading into next weekend, the global models show an upper level trough digging in from the northwest. The latest run of the ECMWF has backed off some on this feature, trending more towards the current GFS solution. With more run to run consistency in the GFS, the forecast has been weighted heavily to that solution. An upper trough digging in from the northwest would bring moisture up over the islands from the south, and bring colder upper level temperatures in from the northwest. The increase in moisture will spell increased shower activity, particular for the southern end of the state. The more unstable airmass moving in from the northwest could produce heavier showers. At this time, the forecast reflects the wetter trend, particularly for the southern end of the state. Will wait for further runs to make any further refinements.

Aviation

The low-level trade wind flow will continue to gradually weaken today and tonight. The atmosphere remains stable and relatively dry in the vicinity of the islands. Areas of scattered to locally broken stratocumulus clouds are just upstream of some of the islands, especially east of the Big Island and Maui. There are also some shower bearing cumulus clouds with embedded isolated light showers mixed in with these stable clouds early this morning. These low clouds and brief light showers will continue to move onshore of the east and northeast facing sections of some of the islands. Brief periods of MVFR conditions may develop over some windward facing slopes this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will likely prevail across most of the state through this afternoon.
The VAD wind profiles from some of the available WSR-88D radar sites continue to support keeping AIRMET Tango in effect for TEMPO moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over and immediately south through west of the higher terrain on all islands early this morning. This AIRMET may be lowered later this morning if the observations indicate there is a more significant weakening of the low-level trade wind flow.
The forecast guidance appears to show strong northwesterly flow developing high above the state this morning. In anticipation of this, AIRMET Tango has recently been updated to include TEMPO moderate clear air turbulence between FL250 and FL400. Based on the latest guidance, this AIRMET may be needed through this afternoon.

Marine

Fresh easterly trades will hold into tonight, then ease as a weakness in the ridge forms in response to a passing front to the north Tuesday through Wednesday. Although the winds will likely ease enough for a land and sea breeze regime to become established near the coasts by midweek (most likely for the western end of the state), guidance hangs on to moderate to locally fresh east to southeast breezes across the eastern half of the state through the second half of the week. Thereafter, forecast confidence lowers quickly due to significant cycle- cycle differences shown between the various sources of guidance.
Surf along north facing shores will remain small through midweek with mainly short- to medium-period northerly swell lingering (largest today – then fading). An upward trend is expected by Friday for exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands as a new, north-northwest swell arrives. Guidance depicts a peak around Friday night (near/around advisory levels for exposed north and west facing shores of the smaller islands), then lowering into the weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will trend up late Tuesday through midweek as a late season south swell arrives. This swell peaked early in the weekend down at the Samoa buoy, which should translate to an upward trend locally on Tuesday, a peak around Wednesday, then fading into the second half of the week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the week due to a combo of weakening trades and limited fetch upstream.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov