Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 85. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85. Light winds becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 66 to 71. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 85. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 58 to 69. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A surface trough over the islands will keep winds light through mid week, with daytime sea breezes leading to a few showers and cloud build ups over the island interiors, while overnight land breezes will bring decreasing cloudiness and keep showers confined to areas near the coast. Light to moderate trade winds return Thursday and Friday with limited showers focused over the windward slopes. Increasing trade winds are expected over the weekend into early next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1008 mb low is located around 850 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, with a trailing trough extending southward through the Kaiwi Channel between Oahu and Molokai. This is keeping a light wind regime in place across the state early this morning, with land breezes present in most areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions, with cloud coverage the greatest in the vicinity of the surface trough. Radar imagery shows scattered showers mainly over the coastal waters near the surface trough, with a few showers briefly affecting areas near the immediate coast. Main short term concern during the next few days revolves around rainfall chances.
The trough of low pressure will move very little during the next couple days, lingering over the central islands today, then shifting over the eastern end of the state tonight and Wednesday, before washing out Wednesday night. This will keep a light wind regime in place across the islands, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes in many areas. Light to moderate trade winds appear to return Thursday through Friday as ridging strengthens north of the islands, with perhaps a slight easing on Saturday as a front passes by to the north of the state. The trades are forecast to ramp back up to breezy levels Sunday through early next week as a new high builds north of the island chain.
As for the remaining weather details, the overall weather pattern will change little through Wednesday, with afternoon cloud build ups and interior showers expected each day, followed by decreasing cloudiness at night with showers confined primarily to the coastal waters and areas near the coast. As the trade winds return Wednesday night, we should see showers begin to favor windward slopes and coasts. Drier than normal trade wind weather is then expected Thursday through early next week, with perhaps an increase in shower coverage Sunday and next Monday if some deeper moisture moves in from the east.

Aviation

An upper level trough just northwest of Kauai will shift slowly eastward and gradually weaken over the next twenty-four hours. A weak surface trough near Maui County will continue to act as a focal point for shower activity. Weak easterly flow at the surface will usher in additional bands of light showers off the Pacific. Southwesterly flow aloft will steer bands of mid-level layered clouds across the state.
The approaching upper level trough may generate moderate upper level turbulence over the western third of the state towards morning.
The general trend over the next day or so will be toward a more stable weather regime as the upper-level trough weakens. However, the low-level trough will linger until midweek, disrupting normal trade wind flow and acting as a continued focus for shower development.

Marine

A trough over the central waters will linger and weaken as we head into the middle of the week. Expect a light wind pattern to persist, with a general background flow from the east-southeast. A surface ridge building north of the area Thursday will bring light to locally moderate easterly trade winds back to the region for the end of the week. No small craft advisories are expected this week.
The current short period north-northwest swell will continue to lower today. Surf will remain on the small side through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as a mix of short period north and northwest swells move through the area. Surf along east facing shores will remain small with some north swell wrap expected along exposed areas. Short period choppy surf will increase later in the week and on into the weekend as trade winds gradually increase over and upwind of the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov