Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 85. East winds around 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 71. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 58 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 85. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds again today will bring the possibility for another round of thunderstorms to the Big Island during the afternoon and evening hours. The smaller islands will see some clouds and showers develop over the interior of the islands during the afternoon hours. A return to more typical trade wind weather is expected Thursday.

Discussion

Have made some modifications to the forecast, but no significant changes since the evening update. The weakening trough remains over the central islands this morning, with southeast background flow near the Big Island. Satellite derived precipitable water (PW) continues to show values near 2.0 around the southern end of the state. The overnight soundings show PW for Hilo being more than .50 inches higher than Lihue. The light winds over the smaller islands will allow for afternoon sea breezes that could lead to a few more clouds and showers over interior and lee areas. Winds are expected to start to rebound tonight, so not expecting as many land breezes. However the possibility remains for thunderstorms to form over the Big Island again this afternoon and evening.
The trough should be dissipating over the next day or so, with a ridge setting up to the northwest of the islands, allowing for more hints of a trade wind flow to start spreading across the region. A light to moderate trade wind flow will steadily increase during the second half of the week, with more widespread moderate to locally breezy trades building in late in the weekend. Expect showers to become more focused over the windward sides of the islands, especially overnight and during the early morning.

Aviation

A weak low level trough will linger over the state through twenty-four hours and beyond. The trough will both interrupt low level trade wind flow and act as a focal point for local shower development. Light southeast to northeast surface flow will steer additonal light showers off the Pacific towards the Islands. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for eastern slopes of the Big Island. Conditions may persist through the morning hours.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough slowly passing north of the state will keep the air mass over the state modestly unstable. Isolated heavy downpours are a possibility over the eastern half of the state. Radar imagery as of 1200Z reveals a band of weak CBs just offshore of the southeast coast of the Big Island. Conditions could spread inland later this morning.
Lastly, bands of layered high level clouds continue to stream out of the southwest across the Islands. Conditions are associated with the upper level trough and are expected to persist through at least the evening hours.

Marine

A slow moving north to south oriented surface trough extends from the offshore waters north of Maui to near Oahu this early Wednesday morning. It is forecast to dissipate through Thursday. As the trough dissipates over the islands, light to moderate trade winds will return to the islands. Trades are forecast to reach locally strong late in the weekend, requiring a Small Craft Advisory for the selected waters of Maui County and waters south of the Big Island for winds of 23 knots or higher.
A north swell is slated to peak today, followed by a gradual decline through Thursday. A small pulse from the north- northeast arrives Friday night and hold through the weekend, while a small northwest swell persist through the weekend. A moderate swell from the east will be trending down through Thursday, then on the rebound over the weekend due to the arrival of the small northeast swell and the strengthening trade winds. Surf along south facing shores will be close to flat through next week.
Surf action picks up next week along north and west facing shores as a series of swells from the northwest rolls in. A pair of moderate swell arrives Monday night and Wednesday. On Thursday, a moderate to large pulse will bump the surf to at or near high surf advisory levels for the north and west facing shores for some of the islands.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov