Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for November 18, 2021

November 18, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
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Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 74. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 75. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 88. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 50 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 88. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 71. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 50 to 56 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 65. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 87. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 58 to 74. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds will favor afternoon clouds and a few showers over leeward and sheltered areas while isolated thunderstorms will be possible over Leeward Big Island. Moderate trades will return by Friday and will strengthen to breezy by Sunday. During this time, a return to typical trade wind weather can be expected with clouds and showers focused over windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

A SW-NE oriented surface trough remains established over the central portion of the state. Light northeast flow to its west has been largely dry this morning with very isolated shower activity focused over the windward slopes of Oahu and Kauai. To its east, ESE flow supported moderate showers over the lower slopes of the Kau district through the first half of the night, but those have since dissipated as well. As a result, tranquil weather and mostly clear skies exist across the islands this morning with just a few passing high clouds noted on IR imagery.
A much drier airmass is seen upstream of the Big Island on the CIMMS MIMIC PWAT product. This airmass will reach Windward Big Island during mid-to-late morning and will limit the potential for another day of heavy afternoon rain and thunderstorms over that area. The hi-res guidance is also relatively muted over Leeward Big Island this afternoon, but this seems at least somewhat suspect given that the upper level environment will not be terribly different than yesterday and the incoming dry airmass is unlikely to have fully made inroads to the leeward side by this afternoon. The forecast will therefore be updated to add mention of isolated thunderstorms over Leeward Big Island during the peak heating period today.
Finally, the potential for afternoon rainfall in this pattern has not completely ended over the smaller islands, especially Oahu. The latest observations and modeling suggest the gradient may remain just elevated enough to prevent a pure sea breeze pattern from emerging, instead favoring something more hybrid in nature. This would in turn shift the favored region for convergence toward the most sheltered leeward areas of Kauai and Oahu. Locally heavy afternoon rainfall cannot be ruled out given the moisture availability and the proximity of the surface trough as it drifts westward, but confidence is somewhat diminished owing to the borderline nature of the wind field. Slightly stronger winds will limit the potential for heavier rain while slightly weaker winds would allow for stronger low-level convergence in support of deeper afternoon convection.
Moderate trades will return on Friday, gradually strengthening to breezy by Sunday. During this time, a typical trade wind weather pattern will return to the area with showers mainly focused over windward and mauka areas, especially at night and in the early morning.

Aviation

Light winds will continue today due to a diminishing surface trough over the eastern end of the state, which will give way to localized land and sea breezes. This trough combined with plenty of moisture in the area will support another round of locally heavy showers this afternoon. Additionally, a thunderstorm or two can’t be ruled out over the Big Island slopes through this time. Trades are expected to return tonight through Friday as the ridge builds to the north and the trough diminishes.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over windward sections and slopes of the Big Island (MVFR CIGS). Although some improvement will be possible through the morning hours, the onset of afternoon clouds/showers will keep the potential for these conditions in place today.

Marine

A low-level trough near Maui and the Big Island will gradually weaken as it moves W over the next day or so. This will allow a surface ridge to strengthen N of the islands, leading to strengthening trade winds, especially over eastern waters. As this occurs, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be required for windier zones around Maui and the Big Island on Friday. An approaching front (currently near Midway) will stall NW of Kauai Friday night into Saturday, briefly weakening the ridge (and the trade winds) for a day or so. After the front dissipates later this weekend, high pressure building N of the area will support stronger trade winds, with the SCA likely going back into effect for the same areas.
Surf will remain well below High Surf Advisory levels along all shores into next week. Small swells from the N and NW are expected for the next several days, biggest on Monday and Tuesday, with swell heights near 4 feet expected. A larger NW swell is possible around the middle of next week. Increasing trade winds will bring a slight increase in wind waves along E facing shores late this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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