Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 73. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 86. Light winds becoming north up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 72. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 67 to 86. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 66 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds will prevail today, with mostly dry weather expected across the islands. Increasing northeasterly trade winds will return on Sunday, delivering a few more showers to mainly windward areas. A trough will move over the islands early next week, potentially bringing an increase in showers, particularly to windward locales. Lighter winds will return midweek, with the potential for periods of unsettled weather through the end of the week. A cold front could bring some more widespread rainfall to the islands by the end of the week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered around 1900 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge axis extending southwestward to a location just north of Kauai. Meanwhile, a cold front is located around 500 miles northwest of the Garden Isle. The resulting gradient is producing light winds with land breezes in place over the western islands and more sheltered locations over the eastern end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover over windward Big Island. Radar imagery shows a few light showers, primarily confined to windward areas. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and wind trends during the next couple days.
The front to the distant northwest will pass by far to the north of the islands today, keeping the high pressure ridge axis near or just north of Kauai. As a result, winds are expected to remain light with sea breezes developing in many area this afternoon. The front will weaken into a surface trough to the northeast of the state tonight and Sunday, while a new high builds north of the island chain. This should bring a return of light to moderate trade winds tonight, with the trades strengthening to moderate and locally breezy levels by late Sunday. The trough will approach the state from the east Sunday night and Monday, bringing a period of breezy trade winds to the islands. The trades are forecast to gradually diminish Tuesday through Thursday as the surface trough moves westward over the state and weakens, and a cold front begins to approach from the northwest. Winds appear to be the lightest on Thursday, followed by a potential cold front and potentially strong northerly winds in its wake for the tail end of the upcoming work week.
As for the remaining weather details, very dry conditions will continue today, with only a few light showers expected. A slight increase in trade wind showers should occur tonight and Sunday as the trades return, but the pattern is expected to remain drier than normal. We should see a gradual increase in trade wind shower coverage and intensity Sunday night through Tuesday as an upper level low and surface trough approach from the east and move over the eastern islands. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in forecast details for the middle to latter part of next week, but overall it appears unsettled with the potential for some heavier showers for both windward and leeward areas at times as the surface trough and upper level low remain in the vicinity of the islands. A cold front may move into the region for the end of the week, bringing a better chance for more widespread rainfall.
The upper level low in vicinity of the eastern islands could bring a period of advisory or warning level winds over the Big Island summits late Sunday through Monday night, and potentially some wintry weather during the first half of next week.

Aviation

This morning, light trades winds will bring isolated showers to windward locations of all islands. Elsewhere, expect dry conditions with partly cloudy skies.
By late this morning and into the afternoon, modified sea breezes will likely develop in some of the more sheltered locations.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

A cold front passing by north of the state will continue to push a weak surface ridge down closer to the islands today. This will weaken the trade winds into early Sunday. A new surface high pressure system building far north of the area Sunday will eventually strengthen the trade winds. This may cause the winds to reach the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold over the typically windier waters adjacent to the Big Island and the islands of Maui County starting late Sunday. The forecast guidance continues to indicate a surface trough developing northeast of the state will move slowly westward early next week. This will likely cause the trades to back to a more northeasterly direction, and will also eventually weaken the trades due to the relaxation of the pressure gradient from late Monday into mid- week. In addition, expect the coverage of clouds and showers to increase as the surface trough moves into the vicinity of the islands, especially from Tuesday through Wednesday.
The current northwest swell has continued to gradually decline early this morning. Therefore, surf has dropped below the High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria along all north and west facing shorelines. This northwest swell will continue to gradually lower through this evening. A reinforcing northwest swell will likely spread across the area starting some time Sunday morning. This is expected to provide a bump in surf heights along exposed north and west facing shores from Sunday into Monday. This swell may cause surf to approach the HSA threshold along some north facing shores from late Sunday into Monday (for example, north facing shores of Kauai). This northwest swell will gradually lower from late Monday through Tuesday. A new reinforcing northwest swell is expected to reach the islands Wednesday, and persist through Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will remain small this weekend due to the relatively weak trades over and upstream of Hawaii. A slight increase in choppy surf along east facing shores will be possible early next week due to the strengthening northeast to east trade winds. Surf along south facing shores will remain nearly flat through this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov