Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 83. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 72. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 85. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 65 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 56 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will persist into the middle of the week, with a brief decrease in trade wind speeds possible toward the second half of the week. With the breezy trade winds in place, passing showers will be common over windward and mountain areas. An increase in moisture is expected Monday night into Tuesday and will likely bring wet trade wind conditions during this time.

Discussion

A band of moisture is producing frequent light to moderate showers across windward areas of the smaller islands early this morning. Shower coverage should decrease by mid day today, but scattered showers will remain possible over windward areas with isolated showers over leeward areas.
As the 1038 mb high far north of the state gradually moves southeast and weakens, trade winds could begin to decrease by the second half of this week. Until then, we will remain in a breezy pattern with some fluctuations of trade wind speeds expected. Some of the notable periods that look windy looks to be this afternoon into tonight and Tuesday. During these periods we could see winds approach wind advisory thresholds for the typical windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island.
As far as precipitation, models are showing an old frontal moisture riding in with our breezy trade winds Monday night into Tuesday and possibly lingering through Wednesday. Weather conditions should become more showery during these days with brief downpours expected over windward and mauka areas. Our typical trade wind weather should return by Thursday. Long range models are starting to hint at a trough developing near the state next weekend. Confidence is still low at this time, but we could potentially see wetter than normal conditions next weekend.

Aviation

High pressure north of the state will continue to generate breezy to locally windy trade winds across the islands over the next several days. A band of clouds and showers currently extends from Kauai to Maui this morning, where AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet across windward slopes. This AIRMET will likely stay in effect through the morning with improving conditions expected this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect below 7000 feet over and immediately south through west of all mountains due to low-level, mechanical turbulence.

Marine

Strong easterly trade winds associated with building high pressure to the north are expected to persist through the first half of the week, then potentially lower through the second half as the ridge weakens. The Small Craft Advisory, currently in place for all Hawaiian waters, will likely be extended through the first half of the week in later packages due to a combination of the strong winds and seas exceeding the 10 ft threshold beginning around Monday night as a moderate, northerly swell arrives. In addition to the winds and seas, a band of moisture associated with a weak front moving in from the north will translate to increasing showers late Monday through Wednesday, especially across the windward waters. A drying trend along with lighter trades is expected late Wednesday through Friday.
Surf along north facing shores will remain small today, then trend up tonight into Monday as a long-period, north-northwest swell arrives from a gale- to storm-force low that raced eastward near the Aleutians Thursday through Friday. This system is now centered in the far northeast Gulf of Alaska inching southward with a broad area of gales to its west oriented from northwest to southeast. Although most of the swell associated with this fetch will pass the islands far to the east, some will spread into the area from a north-northeast direction Tuesday through Wednesday, which will support rising surf along exposed north facing shores. Considering the source, the swell could be larger over the eastern end of the state as it peaks by or around midweek, which will drive surf heights up to around the advisory level.
Later in the week, a long-period, northwest swell associated with a couple of gales forecast to lift northeast near the Kurils to the Bering Sea today through Tuesday will be possible. Guidance depicts an initial arrival of a small, northwest swell Wednesday night into Thursday, then peaking Friday as the second phase rolls in. If this materializes, it should hold into Saturday before easing through the second half of next weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through the first half of the week due to the strong trades continuing locally and upstream. Larger surf is expected for east facing shores exposed to north-northeast swell that is expected to move through for the first half of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov