Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for December 17, 2021

December 17, 2021, 7:15 AM HST
Listen to this Article
5 minutes
Loading Audio... Article will play after ad...
Playing in :00
A
A
A

no slideshow

Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly cloudy early in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 84. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 83. Light winds becoming northeast up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Mostly cloudy early in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 81. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 57 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Update

Forecast has been updated for the Big Island. A land breeze has been keeping the showers and thunderstorms from moving ashore. Will still maintain a few showers for the Puna and Hilo districts for this morning. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm is still on for all parts of the Big Island this afternoon, fuel primarily by ample moisture and daytime heating, aided by an upper level trough passing through the island.

Synopsis

Trade winds are expected to gradually strengthen tonight through Saturday, as a strong surface high sets up north of the islands. Clouds and showers will favor the typical windward areas into the weekend. A wet trade wind pattern is expected early next week aided by a nearby upper level low and a front settling over the islands.

Discussion

The forecast trend remains the same in the coming days, that is toward a very windy, wet and unsettled regime.
Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times, flared up across windward Maui in the evening, leading to a flood advisory. A second surge is now occurring over the same windward location, and is being watched closely. The likely cause of this weather is the upper trough enhanced the moisture that had moved in from the east. This trough is expected to move over the Big Island later. So, the focus of the weather will be shifting to the Big Island and its adjacent waters as the day progresses. The heaviest of weather is likely to occur this afternoon with locally heavy showers and a couple of thunderstorms.
The remaining islands will likely see periods of showers, a few locally heavy through this afternoon. A slight chance of thunderstorms is in place over the windward near-shore waters from the Kaiwi Channel eastward to the Big Island for this morning. By this afternoon, the area is scaled down, confined to the windward waters off Maui and the surrounding waters of the Big Island. As for Kauai, there is a surge of trade showers pushing into the windward areas now. This should be the pattern for the rest of the day. Later this afternoon, expect some scattered showers to develop over the island’s interior.
The upper trough stalls east of the Big Island later tonight and fills through Saturday. The next major feature is the upper low that drops south to a point 950 miles west-northwest of Kauai Saturday night. The upper low then turns southeastward coming to a point 300 miles southwest of Oahu Monday night before opening up to a trough on Tuesday. The surface low that was mentioned in previous discussion is forecast to stall and dissipated south of Midway Atoll Sunday night. The threat of thunderstorms up to this point should be low over the islands but high over the offshore waters west of Kauai. A cold front is expected to drop over the islands Monday afternoon from the north. Coupled with the nearby upper low/trough, will result in some active showers, likely lasting into Tuesday.
We will be dealing with some strong trade winds late in the weekend and through early next week. The trades will start off in the light to moderate range today, with the stronger winds favoring Maui, the Big Island, and their adjacent windward waters. From tonight on, the trade winds will be on the upswing, becoming breezy by Saturday evening over the typically windy areas, that is Maui and Hawaii counties. Another boost in the trades will come on Sunday, where it becomes pretty windy area-wide. There is a potential for a low level wind advisory for most of the islands at this point. These winds and showers are expected to last into Tuesday.

Aviation

Moderate east to southeast winds will continue into the weekend as a front passes far to the north. An upper trough over the region combined with a sufficient amount of moisture moving in from the east has led to increasing shower coverage, which prompted AIRMET SIERRA for windward Oahu, Molokai, and Maui for MTN obscuration. Expect this trend to persist through the day today, with some leeward and interior areas becoming more active where sea breezes form this afternoon. Additionally, a few thunderstorms can’t be ruled out today, especially over the Big Island slopes during the peak heating hours.

Marine

A cold front approaching the region from the northwest will continue to weaken the ridge north of the islands and keep light to moderate trade winds with land and sea breezes over terrain sheltered areas through this afternoon. Trade winds will slowly increase from tonight onward as high pressure builds back in north of the state. Fresh to strong trade winds are forecast over Hawaiian coastal waters from Saturday through Wednesday, with periods of near gale strength trades in the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. An upper level disturbance will bring increasing shower trends along with isolated thunderstorms into the weekend.
Two overlapping northwest swells, primarily from a 310 direction, will increase surf heights along north and west shores through Sunday. These surf heights may approach High Surf Advisory levels this weekend and then decline on Monday. A small medium period north-northeast swell arriving Monday night should keep surf heights elevated along north facing shores with some wrap into eastern shores through Wednesday. East facing surf heights will begin to rise today as trade winds begin to increase upstream of the Hawaiian Islands. Stronger trade winds this weekend will boost surf heights along east facing shores into early next week. South facing shores will remain flat through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

Make the most of your Maui vacation with these top-rated activities: Maui Top 20: Maui Visitor & Tourism Information
E-Mail Newsletters Receive daily or weekly updates via e-mail. Subscribe Now
News Alerts Breaking news alerts on your mobile device. Get the App

Comments

This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Maui Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments