Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for December 26, 2021

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Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 81. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 69. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 74 to 80. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 63. North winds up to 15 mph.

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Monday: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

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Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to 44 to 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

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Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 66. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 76 to 81. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 53 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Lows around 41 at the visitor center to around 35 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered rain showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs around 50 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 78 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to 44 to 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 77. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 61. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 77. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 80. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 68. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 69 to 79. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy trade winds will hold in place through the middle of the week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but the trades will send a few showers into leeward communities as well. Periods of high cloud cover will also move through the state during the next few days. Unsettled weather with moderate to locally heavy rainfall and considerable cloudiness could return to portions of the island chain Thursday into next weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a cold front is located around 425 miles west of Kauai, while a strong 1037 mb high is centered around 1600 miles north of Honolulu. The high to the distant north remains the dominant feature locally, with the resulting gradient producing moderate trade winds in unsheltered areas early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover in some windward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a shower or two occasionally spilling over into leeward communities. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends.
The cold front to the west of the state will shift steadily eastward today, then stall out and weaken into a trough tonight before moving slowly southwestward Monday through the middle of the week. Meanwhile, strong high pressure to the distant north will remain nearly stationary during this time. Moderate trade winds are expected to prevail through tonight, before strengthening a notch to breezy levels late Monday through Wednesday. Winds may shift around to the southeast and eventually south at moderate speeds Thursday into next weekend as a low develops and lifts northward along the trough well west of the islands, while the high to the distant north-northeast of the state pushes steadily eastward.
As for the remaining weather details, we should see a fairly typical trade wind shower regime hold in place through the middle of the week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the morning hours. With moderate to breezy trades holding in place, showers will reach leeward communities at times as well. Meanwhile, with troughing aloft to the west of the state, scattered to broken high cloud will also stream over the islands during the next few days. The forecast details become more uncertain Thursday into next weekend, but overall with winds swinging around to the southeast and south, we should see some deeper moisture advect northward into the state from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This will increase the potential for moderate to locally heavy showers across the islands, along with bringing considerable cloud cover.

Aviation

Scattered showers are drifting into windward and mountain areas on the trade winds. Brief MVFR conditions remain possible over north through east slopes of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Shower activity will decrease in coverage a few hours after sunrise this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate clear air turbulence aloft between FL220 and FL320. Another area of moderate turbulence will affect areas over mountains and south through west of mountain ranges. These conditions will likely continue through the morning.

Marine

A well anchored 1037 mb surface high pressure system located far north of the islands will continue to supply the islands with fresh to locally strong trade winds through at least Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended to 6 pm HST Monday for the waters around Maui County and waters south of the Big Island. An expansion of this SCA to the windward waters of Kauai may occur about Monday night or Tuesday due to elevated seas of 10 feet or higher and from strengthening trade winds as well. Locally strong trade winds will then last through Wednesday before dropping off slightly into the moderate range Wednesday night.
Unsettled weather associated with a developing kona low today will cover the western offshore waters then spread to the waters south of the islands after Monday. These storms are likely to last through Wednesday.
A moderate north-northeast swell will be trending northeast in the next couple of days. An east swell from a developing gale low several hundred miles east of the Big Island is expected to arrive Tuesday and may briefly boost the surf along the east facing shores to near advisory level of 10 feet.
The largest of a series of long period west- northwest swells this coming week, is set to arrive tonight, and peak Monday. Surf from this initial pulse may come close to advisory level of 15 feet along the north and west facing shores of Kauai.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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