Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 66. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 60. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 57 to 63 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 58 to 63. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 57 to 63 near the shore to around 47 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 81. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 52 to 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 80. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Warm and humid conditions with light and variable winds are expected through at least the first half of the upcoming week as a series of fronts pass north of the islands. Clouds and showers will favor interior and mauka locations through the afternoon and early evening periods. Otherwise, rainfall should remain limited.

Discussion

Guidance remains persistent and continues to advertise the active pattern holding over the northern Pacific, featuring a series of cold fronts passing the area to the north. The subtropical ridge has responded and shifted southward over the islands, which supports the ongoing land and sea breeze regime persisting through much of next week. Although the bulk of the weather associated with these passing systems will remain north of the islands, some moisture clipping the western end of the state along the tail-end of the passing fronts may act to enhance afternoon showers – mostly over interior and mauka locations.
The first front in the series is expected to move into the area today. PWs climbing toward 1.5″ along with a shortwave trough skirting the area to the north will support scattered afternoon showers today. A similar scenario is expected Tuesday through Wednesday as the next front moves into the area. Otherwise, a quiet pattern (minimal rainfall accumulations expected) with unseasonably warm and humid conditions are anticipated (dewpoints hovering in the mid to upper 60s).

Aviation

Current radar trends and satellite data indicate showers, along with a narrow band of lower clouds, stretching from Oahu to Maui Islands. Expect this area of showers to increase in areal coverage slightly through the morning, with some MVFR cigs and potential localized IFR cigs developing in heavier showers.
Otherwise, a weak wind pattern will continue over much of the state through the weekend. The weaker winds will allow for diurnal sea breeze circulation cycle during the afternoon enhancing lower clouds and isolated showers for interior sections and along slopes, while land breeze development during the evening will help diminish showers and clouds.
Currently no AIRMETs are in effect. However AIRMET Tango could be required later this morning for a potential period of mod upper lvl turb.

Marine

A cold front stalling over the northwest waters today will keep the surface ridge in a weakened state through Sunday. Light winds will continue into the first half of next week as another cold front approaches the area from the northwest direction. Land and sea breezes will develop in the near-shore waters of each island.
Overlapping west-northwest swells will keep surf elevated along exposed north and west facing shores through the end of the week. As the current west-northwest swell slowly decreases this morning, yet another west-northwest swell builds into the region today through Sunday. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for exposed north and west facing shores continues through Sunday afternoon. Long range guidance continues to show a third west-northwest swell building into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, likely reaching HSA levels.
Surf heights along east and south facing shores will remain small through the forecast period.
Combined seas will periodically reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels for exposed coastal waters through the week. A SCA was issued this morning for elevated seas around Oahu and Kauai.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov