Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 70. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 85. North winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 69. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 84. East winds around 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 67. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 58 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. Light winds becoming east 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. East winds 10 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 65 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 54 to 70. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 65 to 82. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A cold front approaching the islands from the northwest today will weaken and stall just north of the state this weekend. Expect light winds today with local scale land and sea breezes over each island. A brief return to trade winds remains in the forecast from tonight into Sunday, then turning back to light and variable winds from Sunday into the first half of the week. A weakening cold front may drift into the islands from the northwest on Tuesday with a slight increase in shower trends as the front dissipates over the region.

Discussion

Satellite imagery this morning shows light large scale southeasterly wind flow with land breezes showing up in the cloud field near each island. A cold front approaching the region from the northwest will drift north of the state and weaken through the weekend with no impact on Hawaiian weather. Upper air balloon soundings from 12Z this morning show strong subsidence and stability with trade wind inversion heights at Lihue and Hilo in the 4000 to 6000 foot range. These low inversion heights will tend to cap vertical cloud development and keep shower activity near zero into the weekend.
A stable ridge of high pressure aloft will keep fair weather in the forecast through the weekend and into early next week for most areas. Two approaching cold fronts over the next seven days will continue to weaken the surface ridge north of the state. Light and variable large scale winds will prevail for most of the days with brief periods of moderate trade winds returning from tonight through Saturday and possibly another round of trade winds by the middle to end of next week.
The first cold front will stall out and dissipate just north of the island chain this weekend with no weather impacts. The second cold front will weaken as it move into the region early next week. Long range guidance continues to show a slight increase in shower trends as the front dissipates over the state. The best chances for a slight increase in shower activity is forecast mainly over Kauai and Niihau. Overall this remains a fairly stable and dry weather pattern with limited rainfall potential through Wednesday.

Aviation

Light winds and a stable atmosphere will lead to widespread VFR conditions today, with a modest increase in clouds expected over island interiors this afternoon. High pressure passing N of the area will lead to light to moderate trade winds tonight and Saturday, with stable low clouds delivering just a few showers to windward areas. No AIRMETS are anticipated.

Marine

Wind speeds remain mostly light early this morning, with some moderate easterly breezes around the Big Island, as a subtropical ridge axis lingers near Kauai. Stronger trade winds will return briefly tonight into the weekend, potentially reaching the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold, before returning to mostly light and variable early next week, ahead of a weakening cold front.
A northwest swell will continue to diminish, remaining well below advisory levels through this morning. The next in a series of northwest swells will start to fill in this afternoon, then build quickly tonight. This will push surf heights into the High Surf Advisory (HSA) range for Saturday as the swell peaks, then slowly lowering through Monday. Another northwest swell is slated to arrive Tuesday morning with solid HSA conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday. South shore surf will remain very small today, with a small boost possible tonight into the weekend. Small surf will continue along east facing shores into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov