Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 86. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 72. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 76 to 84. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 70. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 67. Northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 80 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated rain showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 41 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. Light winds.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 79. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 61. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 72 to 79. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 86. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 56 to 71. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 67 to 83. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A deep low pressure system north-northeast of the state this morning will keep light background north to northeasterly winds in the forecast today. A passing upper level trough has drifted east of the Big Island this morning. More stable conditions will prevail into Sunday, as the low drifts further northward away from the island chain. Another low pressure system moves into the region far north of the state, keeping light winds in the forecast through next Thursday. Rainfall trends increase on Monday and Tuesday across the state as an upper level disturbance passes from west to east across the region. Drier trends return on Wednesday and Thursday in a light wind weather pattern.

Discussion

A large cut off low pressure system located roughly 800 to 850 miles north-northeast of Oahu will continue to slowly drift northward away from the state today. This mornings satellite imagery shows a strong upper level trough extending south from the low center producing numerous thunderstorms along the eastern flank of the trough axis. This trough has passed to the east of the Big Island this morning and more stable trends will fill in for most islands. A small area of instability with colder (higher) cloud tops is moving into Kauai this morning with a slight enhancement to shower activity expected along the northern and mountain slopes of the Garden Isle. Big Island Summit winds have fallen and will remain below advisory thresholds today, thus the Wind Advisory for Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa was cancelled with the morning weather package.
Stable and drier conditions will return for most of the state into the weekend. Light northerly winds will veer easterly on Saturday, with only isolated showers expected. As the background winds shift more southerly on Sunday, we could see a slight increase in showers around Kauai.
Another round of unsettled weather remains in the forecast on Monday and Tuesday as an upper level trough moves into the region from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF models have yet to come into agreement if an associated weak cold front will reach the islands, which gives higher chances for increased rainfall for Kauai and Oahu. Weak surface ridging north of the state points toward lighter winds for the middle of next week. Elevated shower trends remain in the forecast for the first half of next week.
Light and variable winds continue on Wednesday and Thursday as low pressure systems passing north of the region continue to break down the high pressure ridge north of the islands. Shower activity during this period remains in the isolated to scattered range and developing showers will tend to favor island mountain and interior sections in the afternoon hours.

Aviation

Drier and more stable conditions will drift back across the islands from west to east today, while a surface trough lingers east of the state and a strong area of low pressure exits well north of the islands. This pattern will continue the potential for some showers and isolated thunderstorms over southeastern portions of the Big Island through this evening. Otherwise, the weak wind field in place through Saturday will allow for the development of diurnal land and sea breeze circulations, focusing clouds and isolated showers to windward and interior locations. Mainly VFR conditions are expected at TAF sites through the period, with some MVFR cigs possible in showers.
AIRMET Tango for moderate upper-level turbulence remains in effect across the state as upper jet dynamics strengthen in the region. These turbulent conditions are expected to diminish this afternoon.

Marine

No major changes to the marine grids with the morning package. Low pressure to the northeast of the state continues to bring light northerly winds to the region. An upper level trough to the east of the islands continues to bring thunderstorms to some of the eastern offshore waters. Expect both the low and the upper trough to continue to move to the east today.
High pressure passing north of the area Saturday and Saturday night should support some light to locally moderate trade winds, before a front approaches from the northwest. The front will enter the northwest offshore waters Sunday night, bringing southerly winds ahead of the front to the coastal and offshore waters Sunday and Monday. A new high will move in north of the area Monday night and Tuesday with northeast trade winds returning once again.
The current northwest swell continues to fill in, and appears to be peaking at the Hanalei and Waimea Bay buoys. Looking for the swell to gradually lower over the weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains posted for most north and west facing shores from Maui westward. The above mentioned low pressure system will send a small, short period north northeast swell which will move across the area over the next few days. The next northwest swell is expected to fill in on Tuesday, peak Tuesday night and early Wednesday, then lower gradually Wednesday night and Thursday. Surf heights may reach low end advisory levels during the peak of this swell. Mainly background south swells are expected through Tuesday with a slightly larger and longer period south swell possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov