Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for March 13, 2022

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Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 71. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 61 to 70. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 86. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 45 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 89. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 45 to 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 74 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 62. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny. Highs 70 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 55 to 70. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 68 to 84. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Pleasant conditions are anticipated through Monday, with breezy easterly trade winds and temperatures running slightly above normal. The best chance for light showers will be through the late night and early morning hours over windward and mauka locations, leaving most leeward locations dry. Trade winds will trend down Monday night through midweek, and some moisture moving in from the southeast could boost rainfall chances for some locations. A more typical trade wind pattern will return Thursday through Saturday.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the breezy easterly trades holding into Monday, then easing Monday night through midweek as a front passes to the north. Plenty of dry air combined with an upper ridge over the region will limit rainfall chances and keep the temperatures hovering slightly above average for this time of year. Any showers that do form will be brief and favor windward and mauka locations overnight through the early morning hours and over the Kona slopes through the afternoon periods.
As the trades weaken Monday night through midweek, guidance shows a decent-sized area of enhanced low-level moisture moving in from the southeast – first over the Big Island and Maui County Monday night into Tuesday, then the western end of the state Tuesday night through Wednesday. Lowering upper heights due to an approaching shortwave trough from the northwest along with this moisture support a slight increase in rainfall chances. Although most showers will favor windward areas, a few interior/leeward showers can't be ruled out through the afternoons where sea breezes form. A more typical trade wind pattern will return Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue today as a surface ridge remains in place north of the state. Additionally, a ridge aloft is resulting in mostly stable conditions, which will limit shower chances into Monday. Showers that are able to develop will favor north through east facing sections of the islands throughout the forecast period. Meanwhile, weaker winds on the leeward side of the Big Island will promote cloud development again this afternoon, but will diminish again overnight. VFR flight conditions will prevail across the state with only brief periods of MVFR possible within windward showers.
AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence below 8,000 feet continues across portions of the state over and immediately S thru W of the mountains. These turbulent conditions are expected to continue through today but should improve by Monday as surface winds begin to weaken.

Marine

A surface ridge north of the state will persist into Monday producing moderate to locally strong trade winds across the region. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island was extended through Monday afternoon. A northwest swell moving into the region by Monday may increase significant wave heights for northern coastal waters above the SCA thresholds. An approaching cold front will stall north of the area through the middle of next week and will keep light to fresh trades through the rest of the forecast period.
The current west-northwest swell will hold today maintaining small to moderate surf heights along north and west facing shores. The next northwest swell (320 direction) will build in this evening through Monday, and should exceed High Surf Advisory thresholds along most north and west facing shores. SOFAR drifter buoys within the fetch area, northwest of the islands, are running 2 feet above GFS Wave model guidance. We increased our swell heights by 2 feet to compensate for this low model bias Sunday night through Tuesday. This northwest swell will then slowly subside from Monday night through Wednesday. A medium period, moderate northwest swell will continue to keep surf heights elevated along north and west facing shores during the second half of the week.
Background south swells will keep surf heights small along south facing shores through Friday. Small surf heights will also persist along east facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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