Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 72. East winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 71. North winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87. North winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 63 to 68. East winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 54 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. North winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 63. Light winds.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 55 to 71. East winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light east to southeast trade winds will continue through Wednesday, and some moisture moving in from the southeast could boost rainfall chances for the Big Island and Maui today and possibly across the state on Wednesday. A dry trade wind pattern will return Thursday through Saturday, with trades potentially becoming disrupted Sunday as a front approaches.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and shows the trades remaining light through midweek as a front passes to the north. The low- level flow has responded and veered out of the southeast, which is drawing up a decent-sized area of enhanced low-level moisture over the Big Island this morning. This area will move up the island chain to Maui County today, then to the western end of the state tonight through Wednesday. Expect a slight increase in rainfall chances over the southeast slopes of the Big Island and Maui, as well as their leeward and interior sections each afternoon where sea breezes form. Rainfall accumulations should remain light due to a combination of plenty of mid-level dry air and an upper ridge holding over the area. For the rest of the state, a hybrid trade wind/land and sea breeze pattern is expected with light rainfall favoring windward slopes at night and leeward terrain in the afternoon.
A return to somewhat dry trade wind weather is due on Thursday as the enhanced moisture clears the islands. The GFS and ECMWF are showing a weak upper level trough passing overhead Thursday and Friday. This feature should produce an increase in high clouds, but no other impacts to local weather are expected at this time.
In the extended forecast, an approaching front will disrupt the trade winds Sunday into Monday. Although confidence remains low being this far out in time, a transition to a wet pattern can't be ruled out for early next week. More details will follow as the week progresses and confidence increases.

Aviation

Weak surface ridging remains north of the area and will sustain light to locally moderate east to southeast winds across the state through tonight. There will also be sections of the island chain that see daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes, especially over the western half. Isolated to locally scattered showers will mainly affect the Big Island and Maui beginning today as an area of moisture moves in from the southeast, though most locales will remain VFR.
There are no AIRMETs in effect, but one for mountain obscuration in windward sections of the Big Island may be needed later this morning.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the state over the next few days and will lead to moderate trade winds. As the ridge shifts further north during the second half of the week, trade winds are expected to increase to fresh speeds. Winds may weaken on Sunday and veer towards the southeast as a front approaches from the northwest
The current northwest swell has dropped below advisory thresholds and will continue to gradually decline and veer toward the north- northwest over the next few days. A series of smaller northwest swells are expected Thursday through Saturday with surf peaking below High Surf Advisory thresholds. A large northwest swell is possible around next week Tuesday.
South facing shores are forecast to have small, background swells through the week. A small south swell is possible towards the middle of next week (23rd). East facing shores will have small, choppy surf through the week due to the general weakness of the trades upwind from the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov