Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 86. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 61 to 71. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. North winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 85. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect drier weather as trade flow persists through Saturday. Trades will shift to southerlies on Sunday as a front approaches the state. The front will move down portions of the island chain Monday and Tuesday, bringing rainfall to windward and north facing slopes.

Discussion

Trade winds will strengthen as drier conditions spread from east to west tonight. Models show a front far north of the state will dissipate as high pressure builds farther north. Our airmass will remain stable as upper ridging persists. Expect showers to diminish along windward areas of the Big Island and Maui as well as leeward areas of all islands this evening, with decreasing moisture causing Kauai to clear out near sunrise.
After tonight, expect a moderate, stable, and somewhat dry trade wind flow through Saturday. PW values will fall below seasonal normal to around and inch, and upper ridging will keep stable conditions in place. Total rainfall will be light and, aside from a few afternoon showers on the South Kona slopes, leeward areas should be dry.
Winds will shift to southerlies on Sunday, followed by a frontal passage early next week. Models show that the front and its associated rainfall will reach Kauai late Monday, then move to the central portion of the island chain Tuesday. A cutoff low developing along the front far north of the state introduces forecast uncertainties regarding where the front will stall and how strong the northerly winds behind it will be.

Aviation

This evening, low clouds and showers that developed earlier in the day across windward/southeast Big Island are beginning to diminish. Meanwhile, low clouds that developed across Kauai and Oahu have lingered a bit longer than expected as an area of diffuse moisture continues to track west across the smaller islands. However, these clouds are still expected to diminish this evening as the enhanced moisture eventually moves away from the state overnight. High pressure will build northeast of the island chain into Thursday as a frontal boundary diminishes north of Kauai. Drier easterly trade winds will return state-wide, with any cloud and shower development that does occur favoring the more typical north and east facing sections of the islands.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration across windward portions of the Big Island has been cancelled this evening as conditions have improved. Meanwhile, the AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration across Kauai and Oahu that was originally set to end by 0600z has been extended for a couple more hours based on latest surface observations. However, clouds should continue to dissipate and the AIRMET is now expected to end by 0800z. Additionally, as trade winds strengthen overnight into Thursday, low-level mechanical turbulence is expected to increase downwind of the mountains. Therefore, an AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate low-level turbulence may be needed by Thursday morning.

Marine

Trade winds have been strengthening to moderate to locally breezy as a ridge of high pressure moves farther north of the state. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory for the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island is in effect through Friday afternoon. Winds are forecast to weaken and veer southeast over the weekend as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will likely move through the state early next week with moderate northwest and north winds filling in behind the feature, and becoming northeast as the front advances farther down the island chain.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain elevated, but below advisory levels, through Saturday as a series of small northwest swells move through the coastal waters. A larger northwest swell is possible early next week, with forerunners as early as Sunday night or early Monday, that could raise surf to advisory levels along north and west facing shores through mid- week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small, with only small background swells through the rest of the week. A small south swell is possible towards the middle of next week. East facing shores will have small, choppy surf into the weekend due to the local trades, though surf will slowly subside late in the weekend into early next week as trade winds ease.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov