Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds up to 25 mph shifting to the north 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 62 to 71. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86. North winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 55 to 71. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 68 to 84. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through Friday, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Trades will become strong and gusty over the weekend as high pressure builds north of the state. Increasing moisture and diminishing trade winds could lead to better shower coverage early next week as an upper disturbance moves into the area.

Discussion

Water vapor imagery showed the upper trough that led to a few storms over the eastern end of the state yesterday afternoon shifting eastward and away from the area early this morning. Rising upper heights and drier conditions will result in a more stable pattern statewide through the weekend. Showers will favor the typical windward and mountain locations overnight through the morning periods as pockets of moisture move through, leaving leeward areas mostly dry. Easterly trades will be breezy through Friday, then strong over the weekend as 1034 mb high pressure sets up north of the state. These strong winds may result in the Wind Advisory threshold being reached/exceeded Saturday (peak of the event) for the windier locations in Maui County and on the Big Island.
Trade winds will ease early next week as the ridge weakens in response to a cold front passing far to the north. Another upper level trough moving into the area could tap into some moisture lurking to the south. If this materializes, expect increasing rainfall chances where the moisture becomes focused.

Aviation

Showers remain scattered across the state this morning, mainly focused along windward areas and in between islands in convergent moist trade wind flow. Easterly trade winds will continue to strengthen and become breezy across the state through tonight as high pressure anchors in north of the islands. This trade wind pattern will focus showers and clouds along north through east windward slopes, while afternoon sea breeze clouds and showers are possible over sheltered leeward areas of the Big Island once again this afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with brief periods of MVFR cigs and potential MVFR vsby possible in passing showers.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect. However, MVFR cigs and potential MVFR vsby in locally hvy showers will occasionally generate a period of tempo mountain obscuration through tonight.

Marine

Trade winds will become fresh to strong today as strong high pressure builds north of the area. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the typical windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds will peak near gale force around Maui County and the Big Island this weekend as the high moves eastward and stalls north of the state. Seas will respond and become rough, with the likely expansion of the SCA to all coastal waters for winds and/or seas this weekend.
Surf along north and west facing shores will slowly trend down into tonight as a north northwest swell declines. A new long- period, northwest swell associated with a large batch of gales far northwest of the islands will begin to build down the island chain early Friday morning. This swell is expected to peak Friday night into Saturday, with surf heights likely reaching advisory levels for exposed north and west facing shores, before easing into early next week.
Surf along east facing shores will trend up late today and become rough Friday through the weekend as the trades increase. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend with mainly background pulses.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov