Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87. North winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows 40 to 54. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 71 to 78. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 78 to 86. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations each day as pockets of moisture move through. Outside of a few afternoon showers over the Kona slopes, expect the dry conditions to continue for our leeward areas. Increasing moisture along with an upper disturbance moving into the area may lead to better shower coverage next weekend.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement through much of the week and shows moderate to breezy easterly trades holding. Clouds and showers will focus over windward and mountain locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Rising upper heights and increasing stability are expected through midweek as a weak upper trough lifts away, which will lower the chances for heavy showers and limit accumulations. Expect the dry conditions to prevail for our leeward areas, where drought conditions exist.
For the extended period (next weekend), guidance continues to advertise a wetter pattern evolving as an upper trough drops south into the area. Although the best shower coverage will favor windward and mountain locations with the trades in place, some may spill over into leeward locations.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue to decrease today as a cold front approaches the islands from the northwest weakening the high pressure ridge north of the state. A weak upper low just northeast of Hilo will enhance shower activity, mainly in the overnight hours, over windward areas of each island. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible in showers along windward and mountain slopes through the early morning hours.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for Mountain Obscurations above 020 over north though east sections of Kauai and the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled later this morning as cloud coverage decreases.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue through the weekend, with only minor variations in strength. Winds have dropped off slightly this morning, so the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled. Winds will likely increase back to SCA levels across the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island late this afternoon or this evening however, and may continue through much of the work week.
A series of small northwest swells will move through the islands during the next 7 days, keeping surf just above flat levels most days.
Fresh to strong trades over and upstream of the islands will keep elevated surf in place along east facing shores through Tuesday. East shore surf will then trend downward slightly Wednesday through Friday, then possibly trend back up over the weekend.
Several overlapping south swells will keep south shore surf elevated through Tuesday. Surf will then decrease to background levels Wednesday through Friday, before trending back up next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov