Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 86. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 67. North winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 89. North winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 89. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 71 to 80. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 71 to 80. East winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 84. East winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 60 to 70. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue into the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Trade winds will trend down and shift out of the southeast late Sunday into Monday, then out of the south Tuesday through Wednesday as a front stalls west-northwest of the islands. Plenty of deep moisture being drawn northward combined with an upper disturbance will translate to a potential wet pattern setting up next week.

Discussion

Guidance remains in decent agreement into the upcoming weekend and shows the subtropical ridge holding north of the area. This combined with upper ridging and plenty of dry air will limit windward and mauka shower coverage and accumulations each day (PWs hovering around or just above an inch) – best shower chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through.
A transition period is anticipated through the second half of the weekend as the ridge breaks down and shifts southward in response to a front passing to the north and an upper low dropping southeastward toward the region. Low-level southeasterly flow will give way to a land and sea breeze regime Sunday through Monday for some areas (western end of the state). Although the dry air will limit rainfall accumulations, some leeward clouds and showers will be possible through the afternoon and early evening periods where sea breezes form. Otherwise, clouds and showers will continue to focus over windward and southeast facing slopes/areas.
For the extended (late Monday through midweek), strengthening southerly winds expected due to a front to the west and an upper trough in the area will draw up plenty of deep tropical moisture across the islands, which will drive rainfall chances up. Although confidence remains low being this far out due to model differences shown (GFS being the wetter solution), this wet pattern may linger well into the second half of the week. If this scenario evolves, expect some much needed rainfall across our dry leeward areas (especially for Kauai/Oahu).

Aviation

Breezy, mostly dry trade winds conditions are expected to persist through Friday. Occasional bands of weak showers will impact mainly east and northeast facing slopes and coasts. A well-defined trade wind inversion around 06 kft will inhibit most local shower development. Brief MVFR CIG or VIS are expected in passing showers; otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level mechanical turbulence over and in the lee of higher terrain remains in effect and is expected to persist through Friday.

Marine

A high pressure system far northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce moderate to locally strong trade winds through Saturday. Wind speeds will begin to diminish Sunday as the high weakens and a cold front approaches the islands from the northwest. Wind directions will veer southeast early next week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been expanded to include the Kaiwi Channel and Maui Windward waters based on latest ASCAT pass and model guidance through tonight. The SCA will continue for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through tomorrow night.
Trade wind swell will generate choppy surf conditions along east facing shores through tomorrow, followed by a slight downward trend over the weekend and into early next week as trade winds begin to weaken.
The next small medium period northwest swell is slated to arrive late this afternoon and will help keep surf heights on the small side along all north and west facing shores through tomorrow then trend down over the weekend and into early next week.
South shore surf heights will remain small through today. Background south swells will keep surf from going flat along south facing shores through the weekend. Increasing surf trends are expected early next week as several overlapping 1 to 2 foot medium to long period south swells fill in.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov