Weather Forecast

Maui Weather Forecast for May 20, 2022

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Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs 77 to 85. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 64 to 70. Light winds.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 77 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 86. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the evening. Lows around 66. Light winds.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 86. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD

Today: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

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Today: Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 82 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 66. Light winds.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 87. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs 71 to 80. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with chance of showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 67. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs 73 to 83. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with chance of showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 69. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moisture along a weakening front will maintain higher shower chances for Kauai into tonight. The rest of the state will experience mainly spotty showers under decreasing southeast to south winds. High clouds will gradually diminish as humid conditions persist through Friday. Moderate trade winds will build during the weekend and will hold into next week.

Discussion

Have made some tweaks to the forecast into tonight mainly boosting PoPs and associated fields over the western end of the state. While the PoPs have been nudged higher, they are still below several of the high resolution models.
Overnight saw a band of showers move over Kauai, with rain gages showing most of the rain fell over the southern half of the island. Radar showed the heaviest rain remained to the southwest of Kauai, and that it has weakened as it moved towards Oahu. There is good model agreement across high resolution and global models that show the moisture axis will remain near Kauai today. Winds have weakened as expected, so look for some land and sea breezes today and tonight. With the afternoon sea breezes, additional showers are expected to form over the interior and northern shores of Kauai and Oahu, but with the moisture band near the western islands, other showers will also be around, particularly over Kauai. Spotty showers will be found over Maui County and the Big Island.
The weakening front remains near the western end of the state and continues to bring a humid, slightly unstable, and southerly flow over the islands. The atmosphere is becoming more stable with time. Layered clouds will linger near Kauai, and upper clouds over the remainder of the state will continue to thin as the upper level trough continues to move away from the state. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will keep humidity values high. Expect some gradual decline in dewpoints in a couple days. Upper level ridging will slowly build in, but there is still some lingering instability which could lead to briefly heavy rainfall.
Look for a more stable trade wind pattern to set up this weekend as high pressure strengthens northeast of the state. A mid level ridge building overhead will help to stabilize the atmosphere, leaving to a more typical trade wind weather pattern that will hold into next week.

Aviation

Showery weather will persist statewide, the result of a weak front stalled over the western end of the state. Low level winds will be mainly out of the south through this morning with deep low level moisture concentrated over Kauai and Oahu. This afternoon, drier easterly flow will develop over the Big Island and spread across the remainder of the state by Saturday morning.
The air mass over the state will gradually stabilize from the east as the front in the west decays. Nevertheless, locally heavy showers are still possible over Kauai. Elsewhere, shower activity should remain light and intermittent.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for Kauai. Conditions may improve briefly in the early evening, but will likely lower again after midnight.

Marine

A front stalled near Kauai this morning will continue to weaken and drift northward. Lighter winds are forecast with local scale land and sea breezes in the near shore waters. A high pressure ridge will begin to build back into the region today with easterly trade winds strengthening from east to west through the weekend. SCA conditions will likely return to the typical windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island on Saturday and Sunday. This trade wind weather pattern with more stable conditions will continue into the middle of next week.
Surf heights along south facing shores will remain elevated into next week as the current south swell becomes reinforced by additional long period south swells arriving on Saturday, Monday and next Thursday. In the long range, models continue to show quite a bit of activity in the southern hemisphere, which could translate to additional south shore surf events lasting into early June.
Surf along north and west facing shores will slowly decline as medium period northwest (300-320 degrees) swell energy diminishes over the next 2 days. A return to nearly flat pancake summer conditions is expected from Sunday into the first half of next week as this current northwest swell energy fades.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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