Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 69. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. North winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65. North winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 65. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 65. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 60 to 70. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 73 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A return of a mostly dry and stable pattern with moderate easterly trade winds is expected through much of the week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, mainly overnight through the morning periods. Trade winds will briefly ease Monday night through midweek and again next weekend, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established over portions of the state.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the moisture axis associated with the old boundary that brought the much needed rainfall to the western end of the state over the past few days diminishing and lifting northwestward and away from the state today. This combined with rising upper heights, the subtropical ridge shifting northward, and drier air filling in from east to west will support a more stable trade wind pattern returning for much of the week. The ridge will weaken by Tuesday due to a front passing far to the north, which may allow the trades to briefly ease enough for localized land and sea breezes to develop. The stable environment and dry conditions (PWs around or less than inch) will limit rainfall chances and any accumulations. A similar scenario is possible next weekend as a weakness in the ridge forms.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge building north of the Hawaiian Islands will strengthen the trade winds into the moderate to breezy range today. This trade wind weather pattern will continue through the week with clouds and brief passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. As trade winds increase there will be some turbulence downwind of terrain, and AIRMET Tango may be needed later today.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscurations over interior sections of Kauai due to lingering moisture and clouds. Expect this AIRMET to be dropped on Kauai later this morning. There are no other AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

A high to the far northeast of the state will support moderate to strong trades today and into tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through tomorrow afternoon. The high will weaken slightly during the first half of the week, translating to slightly weaker trades. During the second half of the week, a new high will build north of the area and move east, which will strengthen trades slightly.
Surf heights along south facing shores will hold near average today, drop below average tomorrow through mid-week. The next long-period south swell will fill in Thursday through the rest of next week, bringing above average surf. In the long range, recent altimeter passes in the last 24 hours showed wave heights around 30 to 38 feet just east of New Zealand, which will translate to additional above average south shore surf events lasting into early June.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain small to flat through tomorrow. The next northwest swell will generate a ripple for north and west facing shores late Tuesday into Wednesday then slowly fade through the rest of the week.
Small, choppy surf will return along east facing shores today and tomorrow, before subsiding a notch Tuesday and holding through the rest of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov