Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 87. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 81. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 80. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 70. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep trade winds in the forecast into next weekend. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue for the next seven days with a slight weakening in wind speeds on Monday and Tuesday. Clouds and brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas, mainly in the overnight through early morning hours.

Discussion

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will remain locked in place into next weekend. Fairly stable conditions are expected across the region with typical trade wind weather with clouds and brief passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Trade winds will weaken slightly through Tuesday with localized sea breezes developing in the afternoon hours over terrain sheltered western slopes of most islands.
A few weak disturbances moving through this trade wind pattern may cause an island by island adjustment to shower activity through the next seven days. The first trough shown on 700 mb streamlines enhances showers over the Big Island and east Maui through Tuesday. A second 500 mb upper trough moves through Kauai, Oahu and Molokai from Monday night to Wednesday possibly producing a slight increase in cloud cover and overnight to early morning rainfall coverage over these islands. Otherwise fairly dry trade wind conditions will prevail into next weekend.
The latest forecast guidance continues to match the forecast grids from yesterday afternoon. No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning as the more stable trade wind weather pattern continues into next weekend.

Aviation

Weakening high pressure ridge north of the island chain will maintain moderate to breezy trade wind flow through this afternoon, before winds begin to diminish tonight into Tuesday. Moisture will remain limited across the islands underneath a trade wind inversion through the TAF period, which will focus showers toward favored windward and mountain areas. Additionally, sea breeze clouds are expected across sheltered leeward sections of mainly the Big Island again this afternoon, before the clouds diminish late tonight during the transition to land breeze. Mainly VFR conds are expected across the TAF sites, with brief periods of MVFR cigs possible in developing showers, mainly near Big Island.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect across a portion of the islands through this afternoon for mechanical low lvl turbulence downwind of terrain. No other AIRMETS are in effect.

Marine

A high pressure system far northeast of the area will weaken on Monday. As the high weakens, moderate to locally strong trades will drop down a notch to moderate to fresh levels Monday night. The trades will then persist at moderate to fresh levels through the rest of the week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typical windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island through Monday afternoon.
Surf heights along south facing shores will steadily decline through mid-week. The next long-period south swell will fill in late Thursday into the weekend, bringing above average surf.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain nearly flat through Monday night. The next small bump is expected for north and west facing shores late Tuesday into Wednesday. Small, choppy surf will remain along east facing shores through Monday then gradually decline as the trades locally and upstream of the state weaken.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov