Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 67. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 64. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Sunny. Highs around 84. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny. Highs 81 to 88. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 88. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 54 to 73. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 54 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 57 to 63. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 53 to 68. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep light to moderate trade winds in the forecast through the week. Trade winds will remain light enough to allow local scale sea breezes to develop each day over western slopes of each island. The air mass is rather stable so just some brief passing light showers are expected mainly over windward and mountain areas with few interior showers possible each afternoon.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning continues to show a stable band of clouds hanging up over the Big Island and Maui County. Cloudy conditions will linger into the morning hours across the eastern islands before this cloud band begins to break up. Cirrus clouds are drifting up into the islands from the south today outlining a weak subtropical jet stream over the region. This jet stream sits at the southern edge of an upper level trough (also known as the TUTT), which remains anchored in place over the state through Tuesday.
A high pressure ridge just north of the state will keep trade winds in the light to moderate range through the week. Large scale trade winds will be light enough to keep local scale land and sea breezes in the forecast over terrain sheltered western slopes of each island. Strong subsidence (downward vertical motions) in the atmosphere under an upper trough (TUTT) axis and a nearby upper level ridge will continue to keep the air mass fairly dry and stable through Friday.
Global models continue to show subsidence inversion heights ranging from 5,000 to 7,000 feet, which matches the morning 12Z upper air balloon sounding inversion height range from Lihue and Hilo. Stable clouds that develop in this weather pattern will form over windward mountain areas, and over island interior sections in the afternoon hours from converging sea breeze winds. Shower activity will be severely limited this week due to the large scale stability and dry moisture levels. Overnight temperatures will feel a bit cooler in most areas due to the drier atmosphere.

Aviation

The persistent stratus deck in place over and around Maui County and the Big Island that has formed due to an increase in low- level moisture beneath a low inversion may linger well into Sunday before scattering out. As a result, AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS over windward sections of the Big Island (observations at Hilo have been reflecting IFR conditions most of the night and early this morning). CIGS over leeward Big Island and Maui County, however, have remained well above MVFR levels.
Elsewhere, light to moderate easterly trades will continue, with clouds and a few showers favoring windward and mauka locations through the morning periods. Although some leeward cloud development will occur through the afternoon hours where sea breezes form, the dry conditions will limit any rainfall chances. A band of mostly thin high clouds will continue to stream over portions of the state today before diminishing.

Marine

A ridge to the north will maintain light to locally moderate trade winds through the rest of the weekend with a slight strengthening Monday and Tuesday. Winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels and will produce small surf along east facing shores this week.
A moderate south swell will maintain surf heights near the seasonal average before tapering off Monday and Tuesday. A small northwest swells will provide small surf along north and west facing shores through Monday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov