Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy and showers. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 52 at the visitor center to around 48 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy and showers. Highs 77 to 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 61 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 90. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will continue through the upcoming weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Shower coverage is expected to increase tonight through midweek as tropical moisture associated with the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Bonnie move through. On the heels of Bonnie, another surge in moisture and winds could lead to a wet and windy weekend as remnants of Hurricane Darby pass south of the Big Island.

Discussion

Satellite-derived precipitable water showed the leading edge of moisture associated with the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Bonnie around 200-400 miles east of Hilo. This leading edge should arrive over the eastern end of the state through the day today, then steadily increase statewide tonight through midweek as it moves through. A combination of breezy trades, increasing moisture, and the trade wind inversion lifting to or around 10,000 ft will support better rainfall chances tonight through Wednesday. Some of these showers will make it into our dry leeward areas with the breezy trades and elevated inversion – best chance through the early morning hours Wednesday.
Once the remnants of Bonnie shift away from the area Thursday through Friday, the focus will turn to Hurricane Darby, which is currently located about 1700 miles east-southeast of Hilo. Although Darby is forecast to rapidly weaken as it moves over the central Pacific basin and approaches the area, increasing rainfall chances along with locally windy conditions are possible for portions of the state over the weekend as it dissipates while passing to the south.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast today. Clouds will continue to drift into each island on the trade winds producing passing showers mainly over windward and mountain areas. Cloud and shower coverage will begin to increase over the windward Big Island later tonight, as moisture from the remnants of former tropical cyclone Bonnie begin to drift into the region from the east. This deeper tropical moisture will slowly drift westward to other islands with enhanced shower activity spreading across the region on Wednesday.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of all island mountains. This AIRMET will likely continue through Wednesday.

Marine

A somewhat active period is expected in Hawaiian waters over the next week. High pressure to the N will ensure that fresh to strong trade winds prevail, a couple of overlapping S swells are expected, and the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Darby will pass S of the islands this weekend.
A bit of a surge in the trade winds, and an increase in seas and shower coverage, is expected later today into Wednesday as the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Bonnie move from E to W across the area, briefly tightening the low-level pressure gradient. Another surge in trade winds, sea heights and gusty showers are possible this weekend as Darby weakens to a Post- Tropical Cyclone while approaching from the E, and dissipates while passing S of the islands.
Surf along S facing shores will be on the increase over the next 12-36 hours as a long-period S swell arrives, potentially reaching High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels Wednesday, but latest buoy observations do not support its issuance. Surf heights may briefly ease a little Thursday, but a powerful long-period (20-22 seconds) S swell will arrive late in the week, extending through the weekend. Peak surf heights with this second swell will easily reach HSA criteria (10 foot faces), with potential for surf to reach High Surf Warning levels along S shores (15 foot faces).
Surf along E facing shores will remain elevated and rough through the week, especially as the winds ramp up through the midweek period, and again this weekend. Swells generated by Tropical Cyclone Darby will probably be biggest along E facing shores of the Big Island, where a High Surf Advisory may be required this weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Wednesday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov