Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 64 to 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 64 to 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows 64 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A very large south swell will produce dangerous breaking waves and localized inundation of some low-lying sections of the south facing shores of all islands today. Locally strong and gusty trades in place across the islands will gradually weaken to moderate to locally breezy later in the week. Drier trade wind flow will limit showers through Tuesday. However, showers will expand slightly in areal coverage along windward areas by Wednesday and Thursday as an upper trough and increased moisture drift across the state.

Discussion

The remnants of Darby will continue to progress westward and weaken the pressure gradient across the region. The weaker gradient will allow the strong trades to begin to relax and weaken to breezy late tonight through Tuesday.
Current satellite trends continue to show a large area of shallow low level moisture streaming into state from the northeast this morning, generating mostly cloudy conditions especially across windward locations. Additionally, radar trends and surface obs show isolated light showers remaining focused along some windward locations this morning. These showers have mainly targeted windward areas of Oahu through Maui overnight, however rainfall totals have remained light, generally under one tenth inch.
Overall, expect a majority of clouds and limited showers to remain focused along windward locations through Tuesday as moisture and instability remain limited under a sharp trade wind inversion. Otherwise, limited clouds and isolated showers are expect over leeward locations through Tuesday. Showers are then expected to increase some in areal coverage and intensity, mainly along windward areas, Wednesday and Thursday as a weak upper trough drifts across the state from east to west. This combined with the increasing trade wind inversion may allow some showers to affect the drier leeward areas Thursday and Friday.
By the weekend, drier and more stable conditions filter back across the islands and limit showers and clouds to mainly windward locations into the beginning of next week.

Aviation

Strong and gusty easterly trade winds will continue today, with clouds and mostly light showers favoring windward and mauka locations as pockets of moisture move through. CIRA ProxyVis satellite imagery showed an expansive low-level cloud deck impacting windward areas of the state this morning. As a result, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for the windward slopes of most islands. Conditions should improve through the morning hours.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. No changes are anticipated today.

Marine

The extra large south swell is expected to remain elevated today, however, surf heights will be slowly subsiding throughout the day. A High Surf Warning remains in effect through this afternoon, but may need to be extended or downgraded to a High Surf Advisory based on latest observations. The Marine Weather Statement has been continued for the threat of surges in harbors with south facing exposure. This swell will continue to lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, no other significant south swells are expected during the Thursday through Saturday time period. A small long period south swell is possible by next Sunday.
Short period choppy surf will remain somewhat elevated over the next several days due to the trade winds over and upwind of the state. Some longer period energy from Tropical Cyclone Estelle in the far eastern Pacific may affect east facing shores Thursday night through Sunday. Otherwise, no other significant swells are expected.
Strong high pressure north of the area will continue to produce strong to near gale force trade winds over the next few days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently posted for all Hawaiian coastal waters due to the combination of elevated seas and widespread strong trade winds. A more typical trade winds regime is expected to return tonight and seas will subside, thus the SCA will be scaled back tonight to the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island through tomorrow afternoon. Trade wind speeds may drop a notch around midweek as the high to the north weakens and shifts far northeast of the area.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, Kipahulu, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov