Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 67. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 75 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist through Tuesday, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Trade winds will trend down briefly Wednesday through Thursday, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established. Breezy trade wind conditions will return by the weekend.

Discussion

Guidance depicts a stable trade wind pattern persisting through Tuesday night, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Winds will begin to taper off Wednesday into Thursday as a broad surface trough associated with former Tropical Cyclone Estelle passes to the north. This surface trough combined with a modest increase in moisture and a broad upper low drifting south-southwestward into the area could lead to better shower coverage through the second half of the week (decent chance of showers over our dry leeward zones where sea breezes form Thursday/Friday afternoon). Easterly trades will return for the weekend, with showers shifting back to the typical windward slopes.

Aviation

High pressure far north northeast of Hawaii will help maintain moderate trades through the forecast period. Thus, scattered showers will mainly be limited to windward portions of the islands with isolated activity elsewhere. Expect brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility due to the low clouds and showers.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist through Tuesday as high pressure remains centered far north-northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently posted for the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds should drop below the SCA threshold Wednesday through Friday as a weak surface trough passes by just north of the area.
A new small south swell has been arriving and will continue as the day progresses. This swell will then persist into Wednesday. A larger south swell is then expected to arrive Wednesday night and Thursday, with surf heights possibly reaching the low-end advisory level Friday and Saturday. Moderate trade winds over and upwind of the state will continue to produce short- period choppy surf along east facing shores, while north shores will remain nearly flat.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov