Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 67. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 90. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 90. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 65 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate trade winds and fairly dry conditions should prevail through the weekend, with showers mainly focused over windward and mauka areas. The trades will ease through the first half of next week, allowing for land and sea breezes in many leeward areas. This pattern will keep showers focused over windward and mauka areas during the night and early morning hours, and over interior and leeward locales each afternoon and early evening, with a few downpours not out of the question Tuesday and Wednesday. A more typical moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern with mainly windward and mauka showers should return late next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1025 mb high is centered around 1450 miles northeast of Honolulu, and is delivering gentle to moderate trade winds to the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy conditions across the majority of the state, with a bit more cloud cover in some windward areas as well as portions of leeward Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a few light showers or sprinkles reaching leeward locales. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
High pressure northeast of the state will keep moderate trade winds in place through the weekend. The trades will ease through the first half of next week as the ridge north of the state weakens in response to a front pushing southward to near 30N. This should result in a light to locally moderate trade wind regime Monday through Wednesday, with sea breezes becoming common in the more sheltered leeward areas. Ridging is then forecast to re- strengthen north of the islands late next week, bringing a return of moderate to locally breezy trade winds.
As for the remaining weather details, a fairly dry trade wind pattern should prevail through the weekend, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas during the night and early morning hours. The winds may be light enough for some very localized sea breezes to allow for a few leeward showers each afternoon and early evening, with a stray spillover shower possible overnight. As the trades diminish Monday through Wednesday, we should see showers confined to windward areas during the night and early morning hours, with a transition to interior and leeward locales each afternoon and early evening. These afternoon/evening showers could produce a few downpours, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday, as troughing aloft remains over or just west of the state and some deeper moisture with precipitable water values above 1.5 inches moves into the region from the east. Stronger trades should bring a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern back to the islands late next week.

Aviation

A high pressure system northeast of the state will keep moderate trade winds in the forecast through Sunday. Clouds and brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas. VFR conditions will prevail with only brief MVFR conditions possible. No AIRMETS are currently in effect and none are expected.

Marine

The current forecast does not indicate Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions will occur over any of the coastal waters into the middle of next week. A surface ridge extends from a surface high pressure system centered far northeast of the islands to a point about 600 nm north of Lihue. The pressure gradient south of these features will likely maintain moderate to fresh trade winds through most of this weekend. A front moving down toward this ridge from the northwest early next week will cause it to erode. This is expected to cause the trade winds to ease to gentle to moderate speeds from Monday into Wednesday.
A small, medium period south swell combined with a small, short- period southeast swell may provide a slight boost to surf heights along most south facing shores this weekend. Surf is expected to be near, or just below the seasonal average along south facing shores early next week due to a combination of small south and southeast swells. Surf along east facing shores will gradually lower below the normal seasonal heights this weekend due to the weakening trade winds. A small, short-period north-northeast swell combined with the weak trade winds may keep tiny surf along exposed east facing shores early next week. Surf along north facing shores is expected to remain nearly flat through the middle of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov