Photo Credit: Pamela Goguen Lynch

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 92. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph becoming east 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 91. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 89 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 88 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 84 to 91. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to around 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 89 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 88 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 58 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 88. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Interior and leeward clouds and showers that have developed this afternoon as a result of sea breezes will diminish overnight. Trade winds will increase again Friday and Saturday into the moderate to locally breezy range. An increase in windward showers is expected on Friday as an area of increased moisture moves into the islands from the east. A more typical trade wind weather pattern will return Saturday afternoon through early next week.

Discussion

This afternoon, a surface ridge axis stretches from the North Pacific High far northeast of the state to around 150 miles north of Kauai. The ridge axis has kept background trade wind flow rather weak across the island chain, especially across the western end of the state. This has allowed sea breezes to develop this afternoon, increasing interior and leeward showers. Clouds and showers have been most widespread across Kauai, where the 00z Lihue sounding shows greater moisture content and instability in the wake of a weak surface trough that diminished last night.
Overnight, land breezes will return to diminish clouds and showers over the islands. However, trade winds will gradually build from east to west across the state Friday, reaching moderate to locally breezy levels by Saturday. An area of enhanced moisture currently located near 150W associated with a low aloft will move west towards the island chain on Friday. This will likely increase trade wind shower activity along windward slopes and coasts Friday through Saturday morning. As the low aloft continues to move across the islands and eventually off to the west on Sunday, a drier and more stable airmass will begin to settle in place over the state with clouds and a few brief showers favoring typical windward areas.
High pressure far north-northeast of the island chain will weaken early next week as trade wind speeds wane into the gentle to moderate range. The mid/upper low will continue to drift off to the west as a ridge aloft settles over the islands by mid-week. Expect stable conditions to continue with only brief showers favoring windward and mauka locations throughout the remainder of the week as trade winds strengthen again Wednesday into Thursday.

Aviation

Light to moderate easterly trades will hold through tonight. Clouds and scattered showers have developed over some island interiors this afternoon. this activity will continue into the evening then diminish quickly with loss of daytime heating. An increase in windward showers over the eastern islands is possible toward sunrise Friday as the trades return. No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Weak troughing over the western waters is washing out as strengthening surface ridging to the northeast begins to assert more of an influence upon the islands. This will tighten the northeast to southwest pressure gradient upstream and over the state. This will produce moderate to locally strong trade winds going into the weekend. Trades are forecast to reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds across the typically windier waters around Maui County and Big Island by Friday night.
A small, medium period northwest swell will gradually fade through Friday. Southern shores will continue to experience the arrival of very small, long period south to southwest swells. Small easterly wind waves mixed in with the near term arrival of a small, short period southeast swell will maintain somewhat choppy conditions along southeast to east facing shores. A slight strengthening of the trades Friday and Saturday will increase the east chop.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov