Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Side

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Frequent showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Frequent showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 68. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A wet pattern will linger through much of the week over the eastern end of the state where an old frontal boundary lingers. Drier and more stable conditions with moderate northeast trades will continue over the western end through midweek. Trades will diminish Thursday through the upcoming weekend as a front stalls north of the islands. This combined with an area of tropical moisture moving up the island chain from the southeast will support a wet pattern setting up for much of the state this weekend.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and shows the moisture axis associated with an old frontal boundary lingering over Maui County and the Big Island through midweek. This combined with broad upper troughing over the region will support a wet pattern persisting for these areas. Similar to what was observed yesterday afternoon, some showers could become heavy at times and thunderstorm or two can't be completely ruled out through the peak heating hours. For the western end of the state, expect the stable and drier conditions with moderate northeast trades to continue.
For the extended period (Thursday through the weekend), guidance remains in decent agreement and shows a broad cut off upper low setting up far north of the islands due to a blocking pattern over the west coast. The attendant cold front is shown dropping southward and stalling near or just north of the state by Friday. This pattern will translate to a land and sea breeze regime evolving statewide. The upper trough over the region combined with deep tropical moisture pulling up from the southeast and potentially the moisture axis associated with the tail-end of the frontal boundary clipping Kauai will lead to a wet pattern unfolding for most areas this weekend. Showers will favor interior and leeward areas through the afternoon and early evening hours with the sea breezes.

Aviation

Moisture associated with the weakening front which has stalled over the eastern end of the state, continues to generate scattered to numerous showers from the central smaller islands to the Big Island. These showers will continue through today. Otherwise, limited moisture on the backside of the stalled front, will limit showers and maintain mainly VFR conds over Kauai and Oahu.
The deeper moisture remaining anchored near the Big Island will continue MVFR conditions and the need for AIRMET Sierra, due to tempo mountain obscuration across the Big Island and some windward locations of the smaller islands today.

Marine

A front over the area will gradually dissipate through today. Moderate northeast to east winds will persist through the rest of the week.
A couple of small to moderate, medium-period swells with a northerly component will move through the islands this week. A new north-northeast swell has been filling in this morning. Surf with this swell will rise along north facing shores, peaking today, but is expected to remain below advisory levels. Concurrently, a small northwest swell will move through into mid- week. These two swells will subside through Thursday. A larger north swell is forecast to arrive late Thursday into Friday, boosting north shore surf to near advisory levels Friday and Saturday.
A small, medium period south swell will lower gradually through the middle of the week to background levels. A slightly larger bump in south swell is expected Friday or Saturday.
Weaker trades over and upwind of the state will keep east shore surf on the small side. Any slight increase in west or east shore surf would come from north-swell wrap.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov