Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 75 to 84. East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73. East winds 20 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 85. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 65 to 72. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 79 to 85. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 81 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Very windy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds 20 to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Very windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 39 at the summit. East winds 20 to 40 mph decreasing to 20 to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 78. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 79. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 25 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 57 to 72. East winds 20 to 30 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 66 to 85. East winds 20 to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A strong high pressure system centered far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce strong trade winds across the state through tonight then decreasing to more breezy trades from Saturday into Tuesday. These strong winds will build clouds over mountain areas and produce periods of showers mainly over windward and mountain areas with drier conditions over all island leeward sections through the weekend. The weather pattern may change dramatically from Wednesday onward as a kona low sets up just north or northwest of the island chain with unstable weather conditions possible by the end of next week.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning shows low level clouds drifting into the islands on the strong trade wind flow with a few bands of high level cirrus clouds drifting through the region. Local radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers passing through windward and mountain areas of most islands with drier conditions over leeward areas. This pattern will likely continue through the weekend. Strong easterly trade winds are producing vog (Volcanic smOG) over the leeward slopes of the Big Island today. Haze was introduced into the weather grid today and tonight to cover this vog plume spreading westward from the Big Island. Most of the vog will remain south of the smaller islands.
A strong high pressure system centered far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce breezy to strong trade winds across the region into the weekend. These strong winds will keep wind advisories up for portions of Maui and Hawaii Counties through tonight. A High Wind Warning remains in effect through this afternoon for the Kohala area of the Big Island. The Wind Advisories will probably be dropped by Saturday as wind speeds begin to decrease below Wind Advisory thresholds. However, breezy trade winds will still linger into the first half of next week.
An upper level ridge over the islands will tend to limit rainfall activity into the upcoming weekend with temperature inversion heights ranging from 5,000 to 7,000 feet. Normally this is a drier weather pattern, however in this case shower activity will be driven by the strong trade winds pushing clouds up and over island mountains. Periods of showers remain in the forecast for windward and mountain areas. Downward moving air (subsidence) over leeward areas will create more stable conditions and keep drier weather in the forecast. These conditions will continue through Saturday with a slight increase in showers expected on Sunday as the upper level ridge weakens and a low level cloud band moves through the islands.
Wetter trade winds will develop on Monday and Tuesday as clouds associated with a weak low level trough pass through the islands and the high pressure system north of the state drifts eastward. A cold frontal system moves into the Central Pacific basin late Tuesday will produce a large shift to our weather pattern from Wednesday onward.
In the long range forecast outlook, cold air behind this front will become cut off and long range models are consistently showing a kona low forming just north or northwest of the Hawaiian Islands by next week Thursday and Friday. Much of our future rainfall forecasting will depend on exactly where the low center anchors relative to the islands. However, if the American GFS and European models are close with their current forecasts, then we may see a period of unstable kona weather over a portions of the state by late next week. Stay tuned to the latest forecast updates as these predicted weather conditions will likely evolve over time.

Aviation

Moderate to locally strong trade winds will guide light showers off the Pacific towards north and east facing slopes and coasts of the Hawaiian Islands. Brief MVFR conditions are to be expected in these passing showers. Mountain obscuration could become an issue for Windward Big Island or East Maui later today.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for occasional moderate turbulence over and immediately south through west of mountains. Conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of the week due to a combination of strong winds in the lower levels and a sharp inversion aloft.

Marine

High pressure north of the islands will keep strong trade winds blowing through early next week, with the trades expected to remain particularly strong through tonight. Gale force winds will continue in the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island, with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds elsewhere through 6 AM Saturday. The trades will ease slightly this weekend, but SCA level winds will likely continue for most marine zones through Tuesday. An approaching cold front is forecast to decrease the trades below SCA levels around the middle of next week.
Strong trade winds will keep east shore surf elevated and well above normal through early next week. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM this evening. Surf along east facing shores will lower to near or below normal levels around the middle of next week as the trades back off.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain small and well below normal through the weekend. A moderate size northwest and a moderate size north swell will give surf a boost along north and west facing shores Monday through Wednesday with a decline expected on Thursday. A new very large northwest swell could move in next Friday, bringing warning level surf to north and west facing shores.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small with only background south swell energy for the next week.

Fire weather

The Fire Weather Watch was cancelled for all islands this morning as minimum humidity levels will likely remain above critical fire weather thresholds.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Kohala.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for portions of Maui and Hawaii Counties.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Saturday for Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for all waters and channels outside of the Gale Warning.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for east facing shores of Kauai, Maui, Molokai, Oahu and the Big Island.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov