Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 85. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 73. South winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 85. Light winds.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 85. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 64 to 73. South winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 85. Light winds.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Light winds.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 85. Light winds.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 38 at the summit. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Light winds.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 78. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 63. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 70 to 79. Light winds.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 66 to 85. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 55 to 71. Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 66 to 85. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A dry weather pattern will continue for at least the next couple of days. Light to moderate south to southwest winds are expected over Kauai and Oahu today, with winds becoming light and variable over all islands from Christmas Day into Tuesday. Light to moderate trade winds may make a short-lived appearance around the middle of next week, before diminishing again by the end of the week.

Discussion

A strong zonal jet across the N Pacific will ensure that an E-W oriented surface ridge remains near the islands well into next week, generally keeping winds light. A mid-level ridge will build directly overhead and remain in place through the remainder of the year, severely limiting any chance of rainfall.
In the short term, a rapidly-developing hurricane-force low will pass well to the N today, but will tighten the low-level gradient over the islands. With the surface ridge along 20N, moderate to locally breezy SW winds are expected over Kauai and Oahu, with lighter S to SW winds over Maui and Hawaii counties allowing island- scale land and sea breezes to prevail. No significant increase in moisture is expected, and conditions will be dry nearly everywhere. Some thin high clouds will move over the islands within the strong jet, but will diminish Sunday and Monday.
As the low departs, the ridge will gradually move N, with the light wind land/sea breeze pattern spreading to all islands Sunday into Tuesday. A period of light to moderate E-SE trade winds may occur by the middle of the week (a little sooner for the Big Island) as the ridge moves N of all islands, with light winds thereafter as the ridge moves S again.

Aviation

Rather benign weather is expected today with dry conditions and partly cloudy skies for the majority of the island chain. Expect light to moderate southwesterly flow to prevail. An upper trough will continue to move over the state from west to east and will likely generate turbulence in the mid to upper levels. See SIGMET TANGO below for more details.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate turbulence between FL180 and FL250. See SIGMET XRAY series for severe turbulence, which covers the mid to upper levels above the whole island chain.

Marine

Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds will continue over the Kauai and Oahu waters today as low pressure passes by to the north, while variable winds over the rest of the state shift out of the south to southeast direction and increase to light to moderate. Overall, wind speeds will begin to relax through the second half of the weekend and early next week as a ridge builds in over the islands. A brief return of moderate to fresh trades is possible Tuesday through midweek as the ridge shifts north of the area.
Surf along north and west facing shores of the smaller islands will hold at high-end advisory levels through the weekend due to overlapping northwest swells. These swells will keep seas at or around the Small Craft Advisory level (10 ft) through Sunday as well. A downward trend is anticipated early next week as these swells move out. To finish off the year, the active pattern for surf along exposed north and west facing shores will persist, with a rising trend potentially beginning as early as Wednesday. Surf along east and south facing shores will remain small due to the lack trade winds and any significant south swells.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for North and West facing shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu Molokai and for North facing shores of Maui.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov