Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 83. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 65. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 82. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 82. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 60. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 57 to 63 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. South winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 81. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 58 to 63. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 83. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Sunny. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 53 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. West winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 57 to 63 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. South winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Sunny. Highs 72 to 79. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 61. Southwest winds around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 78. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 81. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 52 to 64. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 70 to 83. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate southerly winds will focus the showers over the leeward areas of Kauai and Oahu this week, while mostly dry conditions will continue for Maui County and the Big Island. Kauai can expect to see a few more showers Tuesday and Wednesday as a front passes north of the islands.

Discussion

As expected, some tweaks were made to the forecast with the morning package, but the overall flavor of the forecast remains. The southerly winds will continue through the week, and will focus limited showers over the leeward sections of the islands, particularly of Kauai and Oahu. A frontal system passing north of the islands Tuesday and Wednesday will boost rain chances over Kauai.
Zonal upper level flow continues to the north of the islands, leaving a relatively stable mid to upper level airmass over the islands. Low pressure to the far north-northeast and to the west will both move to the northeast, remaining north of the islands. This will maintain the southerly wind flow over the islands into the weekend. While the low to the west passing by to the north of the islands, its associated cold front will brush the northern end of the state, and will likely boost showers over Kauai Tuesday and Wednesday. The forecast has been modified to reflect the National Blend of Models depiction. Another low is expected to follow in its footsteps during the second half of the week.
Otherwise, with the low level southerly flow, showers will be focused over the leeward areas of Kauai and Oahu, with fewer showers expected over Maui County and the Big Island. That being said, with the light southerly winds, the occasional heavy downpour within afternoon convection over the southeast or windward slopes is possible.
During the end of the weekend and into early next weekend, the global models show an upper level trough digging to the northwest of the islands. This would help to drive an associated cold front towards the islands early next week. The latest run of the ECMWF shows an upper level low developing along the trough on Sunday, while the GFS is a little slower in that development. With this being a week away, plenty of time to monitor the development of this situation.

Aviation

Light southwest flow will persist through the remainder of this morning and allow for isolated showers to affect mainly leeward portions of the islands. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility remain possible with any of the more robust shower activity, especially near Kauai. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions to prevail.
A strong jetstream extends across the state, therefore will continue AIRMET Tango for moderate turbulence across the Big Island through this morning.

Marine

Ridge will meander over and south of the islands through the week as a series of lows move through from west to east along a frontal boundary positioned nearby to the north. This pattern supports periods of moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds beginning later this afternoon. Expect the higher winds and choppier seas over the Kauai and Oahu waters, closer to these features passing through to the north. The eastern end of the state will remain near the ridge axis most of the week, which will translate to land and sea breeze conditions with a background southerly flow prevailing. Seas will remain on the small side with minimal swell energy expected.
Small surf will prevail for all shores this week with mainly a mix of background northwest, north-northeast and south swell expected.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov