Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 86. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72. East winds 20 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs 78 to 86. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 58 to 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 85. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 71. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 57 at the visitor center to around 52 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 39 to 54. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 56 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 58 to 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 63. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 86. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 73. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 86. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally strong trades will continue through early next week. A typical trade wind pattern will prevail during this time with showers focused over windward and mauka zones, especially overnight and during the early morning. Trades will gradually ease around the midweek time frame as a cold front passes to the north.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the gusty easterly trades holding through early next week as strong high pressure remains anchored to the north. Typical trade wind conditions will be the result, with the best chance for showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. A weak upper low drifting westward overhead combined with an area of enhanced moisture moving through have led to showery conditions for many windward and mauka locations this morning – with some managing to push into leeward locations periodically with the elevated inversions in place. Rainfall summary reflects this and depicts totals ranging from a quarter to three quarters of an inch over the past several hours across the state. Conditions should improve later today as this pocket of moisture and the weak upper low continue westward. Similar to yesterday, peak wind speeds in the typically windier locations will hover around/just below the wind advisory threshold of 30 mph through the weekend before slightly easing to breezy levels early next week.
For the extended period (Tuesday night-Friday), guidance remains in decent agreement and depicts the ridge weakening as an upper trough and its attendant cold front pass to the north. If this materializes, the gradient will weaken and allow the trades to relax beginning around Wednesday, then potentially enough for a land and sea breeze regime to become established through the second half of next week. Although confidence in the details remain low this far out in time, the tail end of the aforementioned front passing to the north is projected to hangup north of the state through this time. This pattern transition would result in mostly dry conditions prevailing, except for afternoon showers that manage to develop over leeward areas or where sea breezes form.

Aviation

Breezy trade flow will persist through the remainder of today and allow for scattered to numerous showers along the windward portions of the islands. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may be associated with this activity. Isolated showers expected elsewhere.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect below 9000 feet over and immediately south through west of mountains.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will keep strong to near Gale force trade winds blowing through early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all coastal waters through 6 PM Sunday. This SCA will likely need to be extended for most marine zones through Monday and for the typically windier areas through Tuesday. A front approaching from the northwest is expected to gradually ease the trade winds Wednesday through late next week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain elevated through early next week. South shore surf should drop below the summertime average Tuesday through Friday.
Surf along north facing shores will remain minimal through the middle of next week. A new moderate sized medium period northwest swell will build Wednesday night and Thursday, and give a noticeable boost to north shore surf by Friday.
East shore surf should remain elevated and near seasonal levels through early next week due to the strong trades over and upstream of the islands. A gradual decline in east shore surf is expected Wednesday through Friday as the trades ease.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov