Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 69. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 81 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 85 to 90. North winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 56 to 61 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 88. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 55 at the visitor center to around 51 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 44 at the visitor center to around 40 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 54 at the visitor center to around 50 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 56 to 61 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 88. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 72. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 88. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through early next week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations as pockets of moisture move through. Expect some showers to carry over into leeward areas periodically due to a weak upper disturbance in the area, especially overnight through the morning periods.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement through the weekend and depicts the subtropical ridge remaining anchored north of the state. Although a mostly stable summertime regime is expected, a weak upper low drifting overhead will introduce some variability to the pattern, especially as pockets of moisture move through. A combination of the added instability associated with this upper feature, bands of moisture moving through, and an elevated inversion will support periods of showery conditions. Breezy easterly trades will focus most of the shower coverage over windward and mauka locations, with some becoming briefly heavy and spilling over into our leeward areas that have become dry over the past few weeks.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy ENE trades will remain in place today and tonight, strongest during the late morning and afternoon hours when some gustiness can be expected. Clouds and showers will be most prevalent in windward and mauka areas this morning, with a few showers reaching leeward locales at times. Some MVFR cigs/vsbys will accompany the showers in windward areas, with VFR conditions expected in leeward locales.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over windward sections of Kauai, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conditions may expand to windward Oahu later this morning. Improving conditions are expected in all areas by noon.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through the day.

Marine

A surface high pressure system located far northeast of the state will maintain moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds through this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Friday night for the typically windier waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. The latest forecast keeps SCA conditions in these same waters this weekend.
A mix of small, long-period south and south-southwest (170-220 degrees) swells will maintain small background surf along south facing shores through this weekend. Choppy, moderate surf will persist along east facing shores due to the trade winds locally, and upstream of the islands. Expect some minor fluctuations in surf heights along east facing shores in response to small changes in trade wind speeds into early next week. The current small, short-period northwest (320 degrees) swell will linger into Friday. An out-of-season, medium-period west-northwest (300-310 degrees) swell generated by former Northwest Pacific Typhoon Guchol is forecast to arrive this weekend. This swell is expected to provide a boost to surf along exposed north and west facing shores from Sunday into early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov