Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds up to 30 mph becoming 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will remain at breezy to locally windy levels through early next week, peaking over the weekend. The trades may ease back to moderate levels around the middle of next week. Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected during the next 7 days, with bands of clouds and showers moving through the islands at times. The showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers occasionally reaching leeward communities.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1031 mb high is centered around 1150 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate to breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions over windward slopes and coasts, with partly cloudy skies in most leeward areas. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward locales, with some of these showers reaching leeward areas as well. Main short term focus revolves around the increasing trades during the next few days.
High pressure north-northeast of the islands will shift southwest and closer to the state during the next couple days, strengthening the pressure gradient across the island chain. The trade winds will strengthen to breezy levels today, and remain breezy through early next week. A drier more stable airmass will lower inversion heights down to around 5-6 kft this weekend, and this should allow the terrain to be particularly effective at accelerating the winds through the islands, with locally windy conditions expected. The trades may ease back to moderate levels around the middle of next week as the high to the distant northeast weakens.
As for the remaining weather details, typical trade wind weather is expected to continue during the next 7 days, with the exception of this weekend when a drier more stable airmass should reduce shower coverage statewide. Overall, bands of clouds and showers will periodically move through the islands throughout the forecast period, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. A few showers will reach leeward areas at times as well.

Aviation

A cell of high pressure sitting stagnant northeast of the state will bring moderate to locally breezy east northeasterly trades across the islands through the forecast period. Expect scattered showers to affect the windward coasts and slopes with isolated over leeward locations. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may accompany any of the more robust shower activity.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through the remainder of today due to the breezy trade winds.

Marine

Fresh to strong trades will persist into next week as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. Seas will quickly respond and become rough over the exposed waters. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all Hawaiian waters through Sunday.
Surf along east facing shores will trend up through the weekend due to the strong winds.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through Friday with mainly background southerly swell energy moving through. An upward trend is expected Friday night through the weekend as a long-period south-southeast swell arrives and begins to move through. This swell will continue through the first half of next week, with surf hovering above the summertime average each day beginning late Saturday.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain near the summertime average through Saturday, then slightly trend up Sunday into next week as a small northwest swell arrives.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov