Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 88. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69. North winds 10 to 25 mph.

Monday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 88. North winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 49 at the visitor center to around 46 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to windy trade winds will persist through early next week, peaking today, before easing. Expect the current weather pattern to continue through the forecast period, with bands of clouds and showers moving through the islands at times. Rainfall will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers making it over to leeward sides.

Discussion

Strong high pressure far north of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive blustery trade winds across local waters this morning. Satellite loop shows a band of patchy broken to overcast low clouds has passed west of the islands, with another band about to reach windward coastal waters. Cloud cover has decreased noticeably overnight, especially across the smaller islands. Radar imagery shows most showers have passed west of the islands, resulting in drier conditions. Isolated to scattered moderate showers are noted across windward slopes within residual cloud cover.
Models show high pressure will remain nearly stationary to the north of the islands through Tuesday, keeping breezy trade winds in place across the island chain. A drier, more stable airmass will build in, lowering inversion heights through the remainder of the weekend. This will aid in wind acceleration across island terrain, with speeds peaking at locally windy levels today. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of the Big Island, Maui, Lanai and Kahoolawe through this afternoon. Trades will decrease into the moderate to locally breezy range Wednesday through late next week as the high weakens slightly.
The nearly stationary high will keep a typical trade wind weather pattern in place. Bands of clouds and showers will periodically move through the islands throughout the forecast period, with rainfall favoring windward slopes and coasts, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours. A few showers will reach leeward areas at times as well, due to the strength of the trades.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue into early next week. As a result, AIRMET Tango will remain in effect for low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands.
Low clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with a few showers spilling over into leeward areas due to the strong trades. Expect mainly VFR conditions across the region, with periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys under SHRA. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for windward areas of Oahu early this morning, but as dry air continues to filter into the region expect conditions to continue to slowly improve.

Marine

Surface high pressure centered about 700 nm NE of the waters will remain nearly stationary through early next week. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level strong to near-gale force ENE trade winds are expected through the weekend across all waters, except a Gale Warning is now posted for Alenuihaha Channel, where terrain and increased stability will accelerate the flow. Some easing of the winds is expected by Wednesday as the high weakens. Nearshore PacIOOS Mokapu buoy shows that combined seas are 8 to 10 feet, primarily due to short-period E wind waves. With a long-period S swell building to near 5 feet early this morning, seas in exposed areas could reach up to 10 feet.
South facing shores continue to get long period swell energy from the SSE with sets estimated to be 10-12 feet. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for S facing shores of all islands (and a Marine Weather Statement for S facing harbors), with the swell expected to peak through the day. This will be a long- lived event with surf hovering well above average through the first half of next week as a second long- period pulse arrives Monday. Surf will return to the summertime average late next week as the swell diminishes.
Surf along E facing shores will remain rough and choppy with short-period wind waves through through early next week due to the strong trades. A small NNW swell will bring some small surf to N facing shores the next couple of days, with some trade wind swell also wrapping into exposed locations.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Kahoolawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, South Haleakala, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov