Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 86 to 91. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68. North winds up to 15 mph.

Independence Day: Sunny and breezy. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 61 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 66 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Independence Day: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 61 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 63 to 74. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure northeast of the islands will keep moderate trade winds blowing through mid week, with the trades becoming breezy Thursday through the weekend. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, especially during nights and mornings. Leeward communities will be mostly dry, except on the Big Island, where clouds and a few showers are expected to develop each afternoon and evening.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high is centered around 1800 miles northeast of Honolulu, with a ridge extending southwest to a position around 700 miles north of Kauai. The resulting gradient is producing moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions in windward areas and partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered light showers moving into windward areas and a few decaying showers or sprinkles reaching leeward communities at times. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances.
High pressure will remain in place northeast of the state through mid week, keeping moderate trade winds blowing across the island chain. The high will then settle southward and closer to the area Thursday through the weekend, bringing a return of breezy trades to the islands.
As for the remaining weather details, a rather dry trade wind pattern is expected through mid week, with mid-level ridging holding strong across the region. Showers will be limited primarily to windward and mauka areas, particularly during nights and mornings, although a stray shower may reach leeward areas at times. Mid-level troughing developing just north of the islands in combination with stronger trade wind speeds, should bring an increase in trade wind showers beginning Wednesday night and continuing through next weekend.

Aviation

Moderate easterly trade winds will continue through the 24-hr forecast period and beyond, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Periods with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible in and around passing showers this morning, especially over the eastern end of the state where a band of low clouds has moved in. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for north through east sections of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island for mountain obscuration above 2000 ft due to clouds and showers.

Marine

A surface ridge far north of the state will slowly build far north of the state over the next few days. Moderate to locally strong trade winds are expected throughout the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place over the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Wednesday. This SCA will likely need to be extended beyond Wednesday, since the locally strong trade winds are expected to persist and strengthen slightly in the second half of the week.
Surf along all shores is expected to remain flat to tiny through Friday. Small south and southeast swells will maintain small background surf along south facing shores. In the long range, a low pressure system from the Tasman Sea to the east of New Zealand, has generated a southwest swell that may boost surf heights along south facing shores over the upcoming weekend.
North facing shores may see a slight pulse out of the north- northwest Wednesday or Thursday. A larger north-northwest swell is possible this weekend, which could produce small surf along north and west facing exposures. East facing shores will remain small through the week before gradually building to modest heights later this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov