Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated light showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 69 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 67 to 75. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. North winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered light showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 82 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 45 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 58 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered light showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 65. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 70 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 69 to 90. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will focus low clouds and isolated to scattered light showers over windward and mauka areas, especially during night and morning hours. Leeward communities will be mostly dry, but afternoon clouds and a few showers will develop across leeward shores and slopes of the Big Island.

Discussion

There is little change in forecast philosophy from last evening. A persistent surface ridge well north of the islands continues to drive moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters and will keep this flow in place through the forecast period. Satellite loop shows an area of patchy broken low clouds, embedded within trade flow, moving westward across Kauai and surrounding waters. Scattered low clouds to clear skies are noted across the remaining islands this morning. Radar shows isolated to scattered light showers within this scarce cloud cover. Models show our airmass will remain stable as a mid-level ridge southeast of the Big Island builds north over the chain, keeping a low and strong subsidence inversion in place into next week. This will cap cloud development and keep showers on the light side.
Expect little change from the current weather pattern into the weekend, except for a forecast trade wind speed bump toward the end of the week. Low clouds riding the trade flow will generate a few light showers across windward areas, while leeward areas stay mostly dry. Expect increased leeward clouds each afternoon, especially on the Big Island, where a few showers will develop. An upper trough passing over the islands on Thursday will likely deliver some high clouds and may trigger a slight increase in showers. Moisture associated with the remnants of former east Pacific Hurricane Adrian may arrive within trade flow late in the weekend, bringing increased windward showers.

Aviation

Moderate easterly trade winds will continue through the 24-hr forecast period and beyond, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Periods with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible in and around passing showers this morning, especially over the western end of the state where a band of low clouds is moving through. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for north through east sections of the western end of the state for mountain obscuration above 2000 ft due to clouds and showers. This will likely be cancelled later this morning as the band of low clouds shifts west of Kauai.

Marine

A surface ridge will remain far north of the state and maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds throughout the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place over the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Wednesday. This SCA will likely need to be extended beyond Wednesday, since the locally strong trade winds are expected to persist and strengthen slightly in the second half of the week.
Surf along all shores are expected to remain tiny through Friday. Small south and southeast swells will maintain small background surf along south facing shores. In the long range, a series of small to moderate south to south-southwest swells are expected starting this weekend and continuing through the first half of next week.
North facing shores may see a slight pulse out of the north- northwest Wednesday or Thursday. A larger north-northwest swell is possible this weekend, which could produce small surf along north and west facing exposures. East facing shores will remain small through the week before gradually building to modest heights later this week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov