Photo Credit: Jeni Ji Cousins

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 82 to 89. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 75. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 83 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 86 to 91. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69. North winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 87 to 92. North winds up to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 89. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 67 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 56 at the summit. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 44 at the summit. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 59 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 62 to 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 15 mph becoming around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs 79 to 89. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 74. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 80 to 90. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trades will maintain a relatively dry pattern into early next week. Windy conditions and some wet weather could potentially develop around the middle of next week as tropical cyclone Calvin nears the islands from the east.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1033 mb high is centered around 1550 miles north-northwest of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds in unsheltered areas across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy conditions across the state, with a bit more cloud cover in some windward areas as well as much of Kauai. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions in leeward locales. Main forecast attention is on the potential for a tropical cyclone Calvin or its remnant low to affect the island weather during the middle part of next week.
A ridge of high pressure north of the islands will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds blowing through Monday. The trades could potentially get really windy next Tuesday as the tropical cyclone Calvin or its remnant low nears the island chain. Rather dry trade wind weather is expected to prevail today through Friday as precipitable water values remain well below normal and inversion heights hover around 5 kft. The airmass is expected to moisten up over the weekend, bringing a return of more typical trade wind weather to the island chain. Subsidence in advance of tropical cyclone Calvin could lower shower coverage on Monday into Tuesday, with some wet weather potentially affecting the state in association with this system around the middle of next week.

Aviation

The high pressure ridge far north of the islands will continue to produce moderate to breezy easterly trade winds through the week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Expect mainly VFR conditions, with brief periods of MVFR conditions possible in showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence over and in the lee of island mountains due to breezy trade winds. Conditions will continue through at least tonight.

Marine

Easterly trade winds have surged back overnight, which has led to the Small Craft Advisory being expanded to most waters around Maui County and the Big Island, including Kaiwi Channel. Guidance depicts fresh to strong easterly trades continuing into the weekend. Tropical Storm Calvin in the far eastern Pacific is forecast to enter the Central Pacific basin Sunday night as a Tropical Storm, then move into the far eastern portion of the offshore waters early next week. Although confidence in any details is low being this far out in time, all interests should monitor the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up into Thursday as a south-southwest swell moves through. A return of background level south-southwest and southeast swell energy moving through is anticipated Friday through the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy each day through the weekend. Long-period forerunners from Calvin are forecast to arrive early next week and build up the island chain. This will likely translate to building surf, especially for east facing shores of the eastern end of the state. More details will follow as the week continues and confidence improves.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov