Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 91. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 72 to 79. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 91. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 71 to 79. North winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the evening.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 90. North winds 15 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 86 to 91. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 76. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 85 to 91. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 45 to 60. East winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 61 at the summit. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 67 to 72. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 91. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 79. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 69 to 91. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect our breezy trade wind weather to continue through the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Total rainfall will be light as a persistent subsidence inversion caps cloud and shower development.

Discussion

High pressure far north of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters this morning. Overnight soundings show a stable airmass and PW values ranging from 1.52 to 1.38 inches, close to normal for this time of year. A strong subsidence inversion near 5200 feet remains a feature, limiting cloud and shower development. Satellite loop shows a persistent broad field of stable broken to overcast low clouds extending from Hawaiian windward waters almost all the way to the mainland. The western edge of this cloud field covers most windward shores and slopes at this hour. However, except for light showers passing through the Kauai and Kaiwi Channels, radar corroborates the effects of the capping inversion by showing little shower activity beneath this cloud cover.
Forecast philosophy, like the synoptic setup, remains unchanged from last evening. Models show high pressure will remain parked far north of the islands through the week, while ridging aloft caps cloud and shower development. This pattern will keep the state embedded within trade wind flow. Moderate to breezy east northeast trade winds will continue into the foreseeable future. Limited showers riding in on the trades will focus over windward shores and slopes. The leeward side of the Big Island will see a diurnal pattern of mostly clear skies in the morning and then increasing clouds and scattered showers each afternoon before clearing again overnight.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through today then gradually weaken on Thursday and Friday. Clouds and scattered showers will mainly affect windward locations with isolated showers occasionally spilling over to leeward locations. There may be brief periods of MVFR conds associated with this activity.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for occasional moderate low level turbulence to the lee of higher terrain. Conditions are likely to persist through at least early evening.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is now in effect for north and east facing exposures of all all major islands. Conditions are expected to persist through at least mid-morning. Low clouds should lift and clear most areas by afternoon.

Marine

Surface high pressure generally centered north of the islands will remain nearly stationary through the remainder of the week. The high is producing a tight enough pressure gradient down across the Central Pacific to maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds across the island's near and offshore waters the next several days. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for winds remains in effect for the typical windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island through Friday afternoon.
No significant incoming swell will allow for the continuance of small surf along all shores this week. Small, medium to slightly longer period southern swells will support small surf along many south-facing shores. A storm passing around New Zealand through mid week may push a small, long period southwest swell far enough north to slightly lift south-facing shore surf by another foot early next week. A nice long fetch of upstream fresh trade flow will keep small and choppy surf in place along eastern exposures for the foreseeable future.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov