Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows 68 to 74. Northeast winds 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 81 to 89. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 70. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 68 to 73. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 63 to 74. East winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 49 to 56. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 63 to 73. East winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 69. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 77 to 85. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs 75 to 91. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the morning.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 62 to 74. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 75 to 91. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A strong high pressure system north of the state and Hurricane Dora are both moving westward this morning. Expect slow decreasing wind speed trends across the Hawaiian Islands today. Strong winds coupled with low humidity levels are producing dangerous fire weather conditions that will last through the afternoon hours. A more typical moderate to breezy trade wind weather pattern returns from Thursday into early next week.

Discussion

A strong high pressure system north of the state continues to produce a very dry and stable weather pattern over the islands. The combination of the strong high to the north and Hurricane Dora passing well to the south continues to produce strong trade winds over the region. These strong and gusty winds will begin to trend lower through the day today as both the northern high and southern Dora begin to journey westward moving farther away from the island chain. Wind gusts are showing a slight decreasing trend this morning with only a few locations gusting over 50 MPH. The High Wind Warning was cancelled this morning as we transition to a more Wind Advisory threat level. Wind Advisories were issued for most mountain and leeward areas across the state. Dry and stable conditions will persist today with near zero rainfall in the forecast for most locations.
On Thursday and Friday, we transition back to more normal moderate to breezy trade winds as the high center and Dora continue moving westward away from Hawaii, decreasing trade wind speeds. Fairly stable weather conditions will continue with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and only brief passing showers in the forecast for windward and mountain areas, mainly in the overnight to early morning hours.
Saturday through Tuesday…More moderate trade winds are expected to continue from Saturday onward with typical brief windward showers, favoring the overnight to early morning hours.

Aviation

The surface pressure gradient remains tight this morning between high pressure north of the state and Hurricane Dora well to the south southwest of the state. This gradient will allow for strong trade winds to persist through the forecast period, though a slow weakening trend will ensue as the day progresses.
These strong trades will bring tempo moderate to isolated severe low level turbulence to areas in the lee of mountains.
A relatively dry airmass in place over the region should limit cloud cover and showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect below 6000 feet over and immediately south through west of mountains of all islands for tempo moderate to isolated severe turbulence.

Marine

Hazardous marine conditions with strong- to gale-force easterly winds and 8 to 15 ft (highest in the channels and windier locations between Maui County and the Big Island) seas will continue today as Hurricane Dora passes well south-southwest of the area. Fresh to strong easterly trades will return tonight through Thursday, then ease into the moderate to fresh category Thursday night through the weekend due to a weakness forming in the ridge to the north.
Surf along east facing shores will remain very rough and around the advisory level today (highest over the smaller islands), then steadily lower through the second half of the week and upcoming weekend as the trades ease locally and upstream of the state across the eastern Pacific.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up today due to a mix of a medium period southeast swell associated with Dora and a long-period south-southwest swell filling in. As the southeast source quickly fades later today into tonight, the south- southwest swell will continue to build, then peak near the advisory level through the day Thursday. A gradual downward trend is then anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

Fire weather

Very dry fuels (KDBI around 600) combined with strong and gusty easterly winds and low humidities below 45 percent will produce critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon hours. See the latest Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Forecast for more information.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for most leeward areas of all islands.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for most mountain and leeward areas of all islands.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters not included in the above Gale Warning area.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov