Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Sunny. Highs 81 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 69 to 76. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 89. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny. Highs around 90. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 76. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 89. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 67 to 72. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 44 to 55. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 71 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 64 to 69. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 73 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 70 to 92. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 59 to 75. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 71 to 91. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected through tonight, with a slight decrease for the remainder of the week. Expect clouds and some passing showers to favor windward and mauka areas over the next few days, with a drier weather pattern by mid week.

Discussion

The forecast has been modified some this morning, trending towards the National Blend of Models (NBM) throughout the forecast period. Overall they are minor changes, with the general forecast philosophy remaining in place. High pressure remains to the far northwest of the state, with another high to the northeast. Remnant moisture from a dieing frontal system currently between the high pressure systems will likely introduce some showers over the upcoming weekend.
The overnight sounding from Hilo had precipitable water (PW) of 1.14, which is below normal, and Lihue had 1.36 which is near normal. This continues to match well with the CIMSS MIMIC satellite derived PW. This satellite derived PW shows the drier air moving into Maui County and the Big Island early this morning. and edging closer to the coastal waters to the east of Oahu. Kauai remains close to a band of moisture to the northwest which continues to move to the west.
Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected today, but a small downward trend is likely tonight and tomorrow as the high pressure system mentioned above moves to the east and weakens. Some sheltered areas could see some afternoon sea breezes as a result. As the drier air spreads across the islands over the next couple of days, rainfall totals are expected to be limited.
The remnants of the dieing front mentioned above are expected to ride in on the trades at the end of the week. As mentioned above, have trended the forecast to the NBM which results in an bit of an uptick in showers for the upcoming weekend.

Aviation

A broad area of high pressure north of the state will allow moderate trades to persist this morning through late today. Thus, isolated to scattered showers will mainly affect windward locations. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur with any of the heavier showers, but not expecting anything widespread. Some isolated showers make cross the terrain and affect leeward locations.

Marine

A surface high pressure system located far northwest of the islands will track eastward over the next few days to a position far to the northeast by mid-week. Trade wind speeds are expected to remain moderate to locally fresh, just below Small Craft Advisory levels through the week.
A small medium period northwest swell is expected to arrive late today through the middle of the week. A series of northwest swells are expected this week as another small medium period swell will keep surf heights steady Wednesday through Friday. Forecast guidance Friday into the weekend shows a moderate northwest medium to long period swell to impact north and west facing shores. Surf heights look to be just below High Surf Advisory criteria but intensity may change as the low in the far northwest pacific develops over the next few days.
Small medium to long period background surf along south facing shores is expected through Friday. Long range models suggest the potential for a moderate late season south swell by next weekend. Surf along east facing shores look to remain moderate and choppy due to the local trade winds.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov