Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 81 to 89. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 69 to 76. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 89. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 89. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 68 to 76. North winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 90. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 90. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 68 to 73. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 63 at the visitor center to around 59 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 50 at the visitor center to around 47 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 60 at the summit. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 80. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 79. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 91. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 58 to 75. East winds up to 10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 92. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trade winds will continue for the next several days, with land and sea breezes dominating. Expect clouds and showers favoring leeward and interior areas each afternoon, then clearing overnight with limited windward showers. A shallow band of moisture will linger around through today. Expect slightly drier conditions to filter in Monday through mid- week, with another round of increased showers possible toward the end of the week.

Discussion

A surface high is centered far west-northwest of the state, with a weak ridge extending eastward just to our north, is producing light to locally moderate trades over the islands. Latest CIMSS precipitable water vapor imagery shows enhanced moisture around the state. Radar imagery shows scattered showers along windward Oahu and the Big Island early this morning with isolated showers elsewhere. Satellite imagery shows low level clouds mainly around the Big Island with a mix of low to mid level clouds over Oahu with mostly clear conditions elsewhere. There is also some high clouds streaming in from the north that will provide a little more cloud cover today for the smaller islands.
As trades remain on the lighter side today, seabreezes should kick in shortly after sunrise today. This will mean an increase of clouds and showers along windward and leeward interior areas in the afternoon. Shortly after sunset, a land breezes will develop at night, with most inland and leeward areas clearing. Background tradewind flow will strengthen slightly tonight and lingering moisture could allow for some clouds and limited showers along windward areas.
Trade winds will trend more to the lighter side Monday through mid week as the weak surface ridge to the north weakens due to a frontal boundary well north of the state sagging southward. The background wind flow will potentially shift out of the east- southeast Monday as the ridge redevelops east of the state. The land/sea breeze pattern will continue through mid week for the most part, with afternoon showers over interior and leeward areas. Despite an overall drying trend, brief periods of slightly heavier rainfall amounts are possible each afternoon, as a weakness develops in the upper level ridge over the state. Land breezes will lead to general clearing and drying conditions at night, with a shower or two still moving into some windward areas.
By the second half of the week, global models continue to show the tail end of a front approaching the western half of the state from the north. Depending how far south this front and associated upper- level troughing make it, we could possibly see a wetter overall pattern develop Thursday into Friday, especially for Kauai and Oahu, along with a brief return of moderate to breezy trades.

Aviation

Light trade winds will continue through the weekend allowing for the development of local land and sea breezes. Expect any clouds and showers that develop over the interior this afternoon to dissipate shortly after sunset. VFR conditions will generally prevail across the state, with brief MVFR conditions possible under passing showers. However, a band of moisture from a remnant front may increase the potential for increased clouds and showers across portions of Kauai and Oahu through the morning hours.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect nor expected today.

Marine

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail through tonight the high pressure ridge north of the islands remains weak. A weak frontal system passing far north of the region will continue to disrupt the trade winds through early next week. A stronger ridge will build in far north of the state by Thursday increasing trade winds.
A series of North Pacific swells are due this week, likely leading to the first High Surf Warning event of the season starting on Tuesday. Energy from an approaching northwest swell will lead to above October average north shore surf into Monday. A storm force low, previously West Pacific Typhoon Bolaven, will send a large northwest swell toward the islands early next week. Small, long- period, westerly forerunners may arrive by Monday morning. The larger, long-period northwest swell will build rapidly from Monday night into Tuesday, likely producing High Surf Warning conditions for north and west facing shores from Kauai to Maui from late Tuesday through Wednesday. This northwest swell will slowly decrease through the rest of the week. A Small Craft Advisory will also be issued on Tuesday and Wednesday for seas 10 feet or greater.
Along south facing shores, a series of south-southwest swells will keep surf around October average through much of the week. Small surf heights continue along east facing shores through next Thursday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov