Photo Credit: Joan M. Flake

West Side

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 76 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 80 to 85. North winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 62. North winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 85. North winds up to 15 mph.

North Shore

Today: Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 83. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 65. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 83. East winds up to 20 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 58 to 70. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 44 to 52. East winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 58 to 70. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

East Maui

Today: Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 64. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 81. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 72 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 54 to 66. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 72 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Showery conditions will linger this morning for most windward areas due to a diminishing frontal boundary stalled near the Big Island. A return of drier conditions with moderate to breezy easterly trades is expected later today through Saturday, with clouds and light showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Trades will be disrupted on Sunday and another front may affect the state on New Year's Day. Breezy and wet trade wind conditions could linger Tuesday through midweek.

Discussion

Early morning satellite imagery showed a band of low clouds associated with a diminishing front stalled near the Big Island. Despite the cool and stable environment in place, steady light showers within this band have led to peak 6-Hr totals ranging from half of an inch to 1.27 inches (peak total at West Wailuaiki on Maui). Expect this trend to persist through the morning hours for most windward areas as this band of moisture lingers and slowly diminishes.
A brief return of a more typical easterly trade wind pattern is anticipated later today through Saturday, with showers favoring windward areas. On Sunday, the surface ridge to the north is forecast to weaken and shift southward as another front approaches the region, causing the local winds to decrease and veer out of the southeast. This boundary will bring increasing rainfall chances and breezy northeast trades on New Year's Day. With the upper trough lingering in the area, breezy and wet easterly trade wind conditions may linger through midweek.

Aviation

A weak cold front near the Big Island this morning will diminish today and the cloud remnants will linger near Maui and the Big Island through the afternoon. Expect trade winds to continue with clouds and showers producing periods of MVFR conditions along north through east sections most islands through the early morning hours. Weather conditions will improve over the northwest and central islands, from Kauai to Molokai by 20Z, with MVFR low cloud ceilings and showers lingering over windward Maui and the Big Island through the afternoon hours.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Maui and the Big Island. The AIRMET will likely be dropped from Kauai to Molokai later this morning as conditions begin to improve. MVFR conditions may linger into the afternoon hours for Maui and the Big Island.

Marine

The large north northwest and north swells that brought warning level surf to north and west facing shores of the smaller islands Thursday has been slowly subsiding overnight and is now below warning levels. The High Surf Warning has been downgraded to a High Surf Advisory (HSA) for north and west facing shores through today. The north swell is wrapping into exposed west facing shores of Maui, thus West Maui has been added to the HSA through Saturday afternoon. As the north swells become more northeasterly (010-020) tonight and Saturday, surf along east facing shores exposed to the north swell will become elevated and may require a HSA. A new large, long period, northwest (320 deg) swell will arrive late Saturday and Sunday, maintaining HSA level surf into early next week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain around the winter average through the next week.
Trades have eased slightly to moderate to locally fresh but may strengthen slightly tonight back up to locally strong for the typically windy areas as a surface high north of the state tracks east. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been updated to exclude Maalaea Bay and Leeward Big Island waters, but still remains for most other zones due to high seas through tonight. These zones may be added back to the SCA later today as winds ramp back up. Other zones may briefly drop out of the SCA late tonight and Saturday as seas slowly subside, only to be added back in late Saturday and Sunday as the new large swell elevates seas again.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala, Big Island East, Big Island North.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov