Photo Credit: Brittney Cruz

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 74 to 82. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 63 to 71. Northeast winds around 10 mph becoming up to 15 mph after midnight.

New Years Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 74 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. Light winds becoming west up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 61 to 70. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

New Years Day: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 82. North winds 10 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated light showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

New Years Day: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 68. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

New Years Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 79 to 84. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 62 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

New Years Day: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated light showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

New Years Day: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 70 to 77. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

New Years Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 69 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 65 to 84. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 54 to 69. Northeast winds around 10 mph.

New Years Day: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 64 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will weaken and veer southeasterly tonight through Sunday as a front approaches from the northwest. Breezy trades will return by Monday and persist through at least the first half of the week.

Discussion

The islands reside within a diffuse and rather nondescript MSLP pattern supportive of light background winds and land breezes over each island at press time. Meanwhile, high stability characterized by a strong inversion around 5kft is keeping a firm lid on sparse shower activity that has developed along some of these land breeze boundaries as they hug coastal areas early this morning. This pattern will remain in place through today in maintainence of continued dry conditions with a few interior clouds developing along afternoon sea breeze boundaries. A progressive mid-latitude ridge presently centered near the Dateline will foster the return of locally breezy trades as early as tonight to go along with a subsequent return to isolated-scattered windward and mauka showers. Hostile antecedant conditions will ensure rainfall amounts remain on the lighter side. Aside from the return to trade winds, little change is expected through mid-week as reinforcing subsidence maintains a shallow and strong inversion in favor of continued drier- than-normal conditions.
Extended guidance is keying in on a closed low that is modeled to develop over or near the Hawaiian Islands during the second half of this week. Subsequent veering and weakening of winds from Thursday into the weekend may aid the development of a less stable sea breeze pattern to close out the week.

Aviation

Light and variable winds will continue across the Hawaii Region before turning northerly from afternoon to evening. Stable atmospheric conditions will limit shower activity.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

The trade winds will ease up and become disrupted today as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will stall out northwest of Kauai tonight and Monday, with a new high then building north of the islands allowing the trades to return and strengthen. The trades could reach Small Craft Advisory levels for some of the windier zones around Maui and the Big Island late Monday, with SCA winds expanding to much of the marine area Monday night and Tuesday. The low level flow will shift east-southeast Wednesday through late next week, keeping fresh to strong trades in place over the eastern end of the state, while island sheltering effects drop winds into the light to moderate range over a good chunk of the western waters.
The current long-period northwest swell will peak at High Surf Warning levels today, then decline tonight and Monday. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the marine area exposed to this swell through 6 AM Monday. A reinforcing long-period north-northwest swell will arrive Tuesday, possibly allowing north shore surf to reach advisory levels late Tuesday and Tuesday night, before declining on Wednesday. A series of long-period northwest swell reinforcements could then build north shore surf back close to advisory levels Friday before declining next weekend.
South shore surf will remain close to seasonal levels during the next 7 days. East shore surf will remain small through Monday, then build to near or slightly above normal levels Tuesday into next weekend as trade winds strengthen over and upstream of the island chain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov