Photo Credit: Leosan Miguel

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 74 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 70. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 83. North winds up to 10 mph increasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers late in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph shifting to the east up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 79 to 84. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 63 to 68. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 46 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. East winds up to 20 mph.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers late in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph shifting to the east up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 69 to 77. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 62. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 69 to 77. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers early in the morning. Highs 64 to 83. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 55 to 71. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 64 to 84. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades and typical trade wind weather will return today and persist through at least Wednesday, followed by the potential for increased showers later in the week.

Discussion

Satellite imagery and the latest surface analysis showed a weakness in the surface ridge north of the state due to a passing cold front. With the tail-end of this front stalling nearby to the northwest, a weak surface trough has formed around Oahu/Maui County. This pattern has disrupted the trades locally, which has led to light winds with northerly background flow setting up over the western end of the state and southeast flow over the eastern end. The recent upper air profiles at Lihue and Hilo reflected dry and stable conditions in place with a strong subsidence inversion, which has limited cloud and shower coverage.
Guidance shows the winds shifting out of the east through the day as high pressure builds to the north and the weak trough shifts west of the area. A weak shortwave trough passing through combined with a slight increase in moisture could be enough to trigger a few light windward showers this morning, especially for Kauai closer to the moisture axis/front and the central islands near the weak trough drifting westward. Otherwise, pleasant trade wind conditions are anticipated.
Upper heights will rise Tuesday through midweek as the upper trough exits to the east. This combined with the moderate to breezy easterly trades will support a more typical trade wind pattern continuing, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the early mornings.
Trade winds may veer out of the southeast and ease slightly, and showers may increase as a mid-to upper-level trough approaches on Thursday and passes over the state on Friday. An increase in high clouds will likely accompany this feature.

Aviation

Light to moderate northerly winds will veer and strengthen to become moderate to breezy northeasterlies later this morning. With a relatively dry and stable airmass in place, shower activity will be limited through the period. However, a weak surface trough near Maui County and remnant moisture from an approaching and dissipating cold front may be enough to help support light showers across mainly windward areas today. In addition, smoke from New Year's Eve fireworks has temporarily dropped visibilities into the MVFR range or lower for a few areas, but these conditions will improve later this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail, except for in any passing showers.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.

Marine

A weakening cold front will stall and dissipate just north of Kauai today. A high pressure system will build in north of the state through much of next week with moderate to breezy trade winds in the forecast each day through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory was issued this morning for the typical windier zones near Maui and the Big Island lasting through Tuesday. Winds will weaken slightly and shift from a more east to southeast direction with hybrid land and sea breeze elements from Wednesday through Sunday.
The current long period northwest swell will remain steady today and tonight, hovering near low end High Surf Advisory (HSA) thresholds. The current HSA was extended in time through this afternoon for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. Surf heights are forecast to fall just below advisory thresholds by this evening as the swell period continues to decline. A small north swell will also linger through the day today before fading by tonight. A series of reinforcing long period northwest swells will arrive this week, likely bringing north and west shore surf back into advisory levels Thursday through Friday.
South shore surf will remain on the small side over the next 7 days. East shore surf will remain small today, then build from Tuesday into next weekend as trade winds strengthen over and upstream of the island chain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov