Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 82. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 70. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 73 to 81. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

South Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69. North winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 80. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

North Shore

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 62 to 67. East winds up to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 81. East winds up to 15 mph.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 67 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 66 at the summit. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

East Maui

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 75. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 68 to 75. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 64 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 54 to 69. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 64 to 82. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Easterly trade winds will gradually ease through Saturday as a surface ridge to the north weakens. Showers will favor windward and mauka slopes, while most leeward areas remain dry. Trade winds will break down late Saturday through Sunday, leading to a land and sea breeze pattern with limited showers. A shallow dissipating front is expected drift over Kauai and Oahu Monday night and Tuesday under light northerly winds. Southwesterly winds are expected to develop around Wednesday as a stronger front approaches.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement through the weekend and shows a weakness forming in the surface ridge as a couple of fronts pass north of the area. The low-level flow will gradually ease and shift out of the east-southeast, likely enough for a land and sea breeze regime to begin for most areas as early as Saturday night. Shower coverage will remain limited to windward areas through Saturday, with mostly dry and stable conditions holding over leeward areas.
The tail-end of the second front passing north of the area will begin to approach Sunday. A combination of the approaching boundary, lowering upper heights as a weak pulse aloft moves through, and daytime heating should be enough to trigger a few showers where sea breezes form Sunday. Otherwise, limited moisture in the area will support mostly dry conditions persisting.
A rather dry and light northwesterly flow on Monday will give way to northerly winds that should push the dissipating and shallow front down to Kauai or Oahu on Tuesday. These islands will likely experience some light shower activity, but little rainfall is expected elsewhere.
Southwesterly winds are expected to develop around Wednesday and could become gusty as a stronger front approaches. Timing on this frontal passage is uncertain but favors next Thursday.

Aviation

A low pressure trough approaching the islands from the northwest direction will break down the ridge north of the Hawaii region and decrease wind speeds into the light to locally moderate range through the weekend. In the absence of large scale winds, local scale land and sea breezes will continue to expand in coverage over each island. Clouds will build over island interiors each day in sea breeze winds, and then clear out each night in stable land breezes. Shower activity will be limited in this weather pattern with isolated to scattered coverage.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turb between FL180 and FL420. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled by the 16Z update.

Marine

High pressure system far northeast of the state will continue to drift eastward away from the islands today as the surface ridge to the north weakens through early next week. Trade wind speeds will continue to weaken into the weekend, with light to moderate winds forecast over the western islands starting today, then the entire state by Sunday. Eastern islands will remain moderate to locally fresh over the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island but below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through Saturday.
Surf heights along north and west facing shores will see a steady rise as a moderate medium to long period swell is expected to build through the day, peak Saturday near High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels before steadily declining through early next week. Wave guidance is indicating the potential for an extra large long-period northwest (320 deg) swell arriving around next Thursday, with the potential for surf well above warning levels in the extra-large to giant range along exposed north and west facing shores. This situation will be closely monitored over the next several days.
Expect small background south swell pulses to continue through the middle of next week. A small, long-period south (200-220 deg) swell with Tasman Sea origins will produce a slight bump in south shore surf today through Sunday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

Maui Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Maui Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov