Photo Credit: Tyler Rooke

West Side

Rest Of Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 72 to 81. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 70. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 79. West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Side

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 69. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79. West winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the north 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

North Shore

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. West winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Rest Of Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 66. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80. West winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the north 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Upcountry

Rest Of Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 64 at the visitor center to around 57 at the summit. Southwest winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 47 at the visitor center to around 42 at the summit. West winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers and isolated snow showers in the morning, then scattered showers and snow showers in the afternoon. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 55 at the summit. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent.

East Maui

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. West winds around 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Rest Of Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 68 to 75. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 61. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 66 to 74. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kaunakakai

Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 64 to 82. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 53 to 69. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 61 to 80. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Winds will strengthen out of the southwest today as a front approaches from the northwest, then passes over the island chain tonight through Friday morning. Expect increased clouds and showers as the front passes by. North winds will fill in behind the front, then become northeasterly trade winds through the weekend.

Discussion

Troughing to our northwest has pushed a weakened subtropical ridge across the islands this morning, keeping our winds light. Cloud cover across the islands decreased from last evening, but has begun to increase again early this morning across Kauai and Oahu as light southwesterlies develop ahead of an approaching front. Expect continued strengthening of these southwesterlies statewide today. Rainfall was minimal overnight, reflecting a rather dry and stable prefrontal airmass. Latest soundings showed less than in inch of PW with positive lifted index values.
Models show the front approaching from the northwest will reach Kauai tonight, then move down the island chain afterwards through Friday morning. Expect a limited period of wet weather for each island as frontal clouds and showers pass by. The front will have little upper level support, so we are not expecting heavy rain or thunderstorms along the boundary. High pressure will build in behind the front, producing cooler temperatures along with breezy north to northeast winds. Passing windward and mountain showers will continue through early next week as the high shifts eastward north of the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend.

Aviation

A cold front approaching the islands from the northwest will produce southwesterly winds spreading across the state today. A few showers will develop along south and west facing slopes of each island today and tonight. This cold front will reach Kauai later tonight and Oahu by early Thursday morning, producing periods of MVFR conditions as the front marches eastward down the island chain.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected through this afternoon. AIRMETs for mountain obscuration will be needed as the front passes through each island.

Marine

An approaching cold front from the northwest will strengthen south to southwest winds to more moderate magnitudes, with locally stronger winds reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds around Kauai, later today. The front will move down the state from tonight through late Thursday as fresh northerly winds fill in behind the front. Winds will gradually veer to the northeast Friday and likely strengthen to SCA magnitudes as surface high pressure moves into the central North Pacific. This high will pass far north of the state on Sunday, maintaining fresh to locally strong trade winds.
Surf along north and west-facing shores will remain small through today with as background, short period northwest energy fades out. A significant, XL northwest (320 degree) swell will arrive late tonight and rapidly build down the island chain Thursday. This swell will lift surf to well above High Surf Warning levels along most north and west-facing shores. The passing of this swell within moderate to locally strong northeast winds will result in rough sea conditions and warrant an SCA for most local nearshore waters. A swell of this size will adversely impact coastal areas, especially during periods of high tide both Thursday and Friday evenings. Preparations should be made for the threat of coastal flooding as ocean water runs up and inundates beaches and potentially affects coastal properties and roadways. The northwest swell will slowly decline Friday and Saturday with a large, medium period north swell (350 degree) following on its heels Saturday and Sunday. This swell will maintain solid High Surf Advisory level surf along most northern exposures and keep seas at SCA heights. Surf along east-facing shores will experience a rapid increase this weekend due to a combination of rough, short period trade wind swell and large north swell. Seasonal small surf will occur along south shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Kauai East, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov